Shorten’s hubris puts a spring in the PM’s step

A great deal will depend on what happens in the interim, but the election is now up for grabs.

Scott Morrison has had a good parliamentary fortnight but still faces much turbulence in an election contest that was always going to be tight. Picture: Kym Smith

One minute they had him as the pilot of the Hindenburg heading to inevitable disaster, the next they had him as Captain Sully about to pull off a remarkable landing. The truth is Scott Morrison has had a good fortnight but still faces much turbulence in an election contest that was always going to be tight.

The instantaneous reversal of some political forecasts bears testament both to how fickle the pundits can be and how disastrous it was for Bill Shorten to weaken the nation’s border security.

The point — as we have been saying for many months — is that elections are always close and the Coalition has some strong fundamentals, especially border protection, economic management and energy policy, that will run in its favour if it makes the right decisions and advocates well.

What has happened with the medivac bill is an unexpected stroke of luck; instead of having to remind Australians what a risk Labor would be on borders, Morrison has seen Shorten demonstrate this to the nation.

And nothing works better in politics than real action — positive or negative. You can talk and spin all you like but when there are real outcomes, voters take notice. And Labor, inexplicably, has been led by the nose by green-Left independents and the Greens to weaken border protection even before winning office.

There are all sorts of analogies to be drawn here and last week I suggested in political terms that Shorten’s decision was redolent of Mark Latham’s “troops home by Christmas” line. This is because even though the issue is difficult and many voters might be sympathetic with the aims of the policy pronouncement, the decision was obviously rash and raised questions about whether it reflected the sobriety and caution required in a prime minister.

But a better metaphor came my way this week when an old friend — a former press gallery journalist and ministerial adviser — texted me; “Shorten is the new Herschelle Gibbs.”

Cricket fans will instantly recall the hubris of South African champion Gibbs in a 1999 World Cup match that Australia needed to win to make the finals in England; he dropped a sitter from Steve Waugh on 56 while trying to throw the ball up in celebration before he had controlled it. Waugh told him he had just dropped the World Cup, or words to that effect, as he went on to make a century and win the match, before Australia later snared the title.

The key element is the hubris. The ultimate result is far from certain, with plenty yet to play out. But if the polls had been closer and Shorten had more respect for his opponent and wariness about his challenge, would he have indulged himself with such a reckless indulgence on border policy?

Remember, on the medivac issue the government agencies in charge of our borders say the bill Labor initially supported in the Senate last year would have been “catastrophic” for national security and that even in its final form the changes create significant risk of reactivating the people-smuggling trade. The people who made those decisions could soon be sitting around the cabinet table in a meeting of the national security committee.

This was not even a Labor initiative. Shorten chanced his arm on an ill-considered, reckless and pointless piece of legislation that was put up by independent MP Kerryn Phelps, who has all of five months’ experience in politics and zero experience in national security, border protection or foreign affairs. There is much that could unfold from here.

Perhaps there will simply be a few dozen people heading to Christmas Island for medical assessments, but there could be a large influx with some heading to the mainland and taking court action to stay — or there could be a boat detected. But whatever transpires, there will be political consequences.

First, it has reactivated the issue of border protection, putting a strong focus on the Coalition’s success and reminding us of Labor’s record. A discussion about the inherent risk of a change of government is now with us till polling day. In its wildest dreams the Coalition could not have expected Labor to walk into this trap.

But second, and perhaps this is yet to be properly contemplated, Shorten’s authority has been diminished. It is his first significant political mistake since the election, it has triggered mixed messages from his team as they struggle to work out what they think of the Christmas Island compromise, and it has exposed him as a vessel of the Greens and crossbench.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Shorten has been a very good Opposition Leader. He rarely misses an opportunity to deliver the right political line and, importantly, his tone is calm and consistent. What he lacks in likeability he makes up for in consistency. When the pressure is intense, he manages the situation well enough so that he is either out of the frame or assured in front of the cameras. This is much harder than it seems, and much more important than you could imagine. Even in the past fortnight, in the middle of his greatest political kerfuffle, he has not appeared rattled or distracted.

But passing the medivac bill was poor judgment in political and national interest terms. So Shorten needs to move on and cauterise this if he can.

His decision not to contest the idea of refugees being treated on Christmas Island — clearly against the intent of the legislation — was a demonstration that he understands his mistake. He wants out of this mess and hopes that competent government management, via the loophole the legislation foolishly allowed, gets him off the hook.

When Gibbs dropped Waugh back in 1999, the game wasn’t over — victory demanded the Australian batsman take advantage of the situation, which he did with 120 off 110 balls. Shorten’s hubris has put a spring in Morrison’s step and given him an unexpected chance to capitalise. We will see. More will happen in the border security area — it is predictably unpredictable — so the fates of Shorten and Morrison, to some degree, are in the laps of the people-smugglers and activists. The campaign will be shaped by a handful of hot-button issues — borders, immigration, tax, energy, climate, unions and leadership — and also, as ever, by events.

Just as people were silly to write off Morrison last year, you would be naive to write off Shorten now; whether or not Newspoll mirrors the sharp poll tightening we saw this week in the Ipsos poll. We are now, suddenly, fully engaged in the sort of willing contest that was always inevitable both before and since the Liberal leadership change.

The Coalition, despite its self-harm and constant dramas, has strength on the economy, borders and energy policy — the sorts of issues that voters focus on at the pointy end. Labor has run a smart and tactical opposition for years but has taken risks. Game on.