Mike Baird: the high price of power

The leader of the nation’s largest state simply has run out of gas.

Outgoing NSW Premier Mike Baird at Observatory Hill in 2015. Picture: Phil Hillyard.

There was a moment of heartfelt reflection — a confession of sorts — that provided valuable insight into Mike Baird’s shock resignation as NSW Premier.

It came almost 18 minutes into his lengthy press conference in Sydney yesterday as Baird tried to explain to a surprised media pack, and to voters, the urgent need to “refresh” his government. This was a “reset”, as he put it, in which he would play no part.

“I’ve given my best, I’ve given my all,” Baird said. “I mean, there is nothing left, I’ve worked as hard as I possibly can for the people of this state. I’ve gone for over 10 years when you include the time before the election, and ultimately I hope people see that I’ve made a difference.”

So it has come to this: the leader of the nation’s largest state has run out of gas.

Outside Baird’s office bubble, the empty petrol tank may seem a strange rationalisation for a relatively youthful, energetic man. He has served for only two years and nine months in the top job and is 48 years old.

Strange indeed for a Premier who took charge when his party colleague and predecessor Barry O’Farrell quit prematurely in bizarre circumstances — resigning over the gift of a bottle of expensive wine.

At the time, Baird vowed to stay the distance. His focus was long-range. He said he wanted to oversee to completion, or near enough, many of the big-spending projects his government had kickstarted and that he hoped would transform the state into one that was ready to tackle the challenges of the 21st century.

Eleven months into the job, Baird won the March 2015 election for the Coalition in a convincing fashion.

True enough, voters judged Labor not ready to reclaim office after the political and economic mess it had left behind in 2011, and the revolving door of premiers near Labor’s sorry end to 16 years in power.

But voters seemed to warmly welcome what Baird had to offer. He was a no-nonsense, can-do politician. He was willing to take a gamble, defying an election scare campaign by Labor, with his commitment to sell off the state’s “poles and wires”.

This last big part of privatising the NSW electricity grid, which Labor had been too timid to pursue in the face of union opposition, unleashed huge capital for public investment without saddling the state with more debt.

At the same time, the popular Premier committed himself to restoring the state’s budget to buoyant health. A future of surpluses and no debt while Baird’s government spent big on new roads, tunnels, railway lines and other infrastructure was surely the recipe for success for this … premier-for-life?

Alas for Baird, miscalculations came quickly that cost him too much political capital. There was no better measure than Newspoll results showing a record plummet in support as the Premier’s satisfaction rating sank last year from 39 per cent to minus 15.

Baird surely meant it yesterday when he said he had tried his best but there was “nothing left” after he had given his “all”. However, his abrupt exit, after showing so much promise, highlights the price of power, especially for those who do not know how to exercise it well or lack the ruthless determination of the career politician.

Last year was Baird’s annus horribilis. If predecessors such as Bob Carr, and O’Farrell too, were often criticised for inaction, political savvy guided their behaviour. It aided their longevity.

Baird, through misjudgment, created too many battlefronts at once by imposing decisions on the electorate. Banning the state’s greyhound racing industry, followed by an abrupt backflip that he vowed would not happen, was most emblematic of all — but there were so many political headaches for Baird.

He encountered public backlashes across the state from enforced local council mergers and the resumption of homes and abrupt planning changes to make way for new tollways. He stood firm on O’Farrell’s pub lockout laws. He was perceived to be too tardy in responding to a wave of coastal shark attacks.

The thread running through all of these self-induced political debacles was the appearance of Baird acting like a steamroller, or even “dictator”, as Mark Latham chose to express it yesterday.

He was a politician widely regarded as a decent human being wanting to do “the right thing”, guided by his personal religious faith and often acting at odds with the hardnosed image of his past career as an investment banker by quietly lending personal support to disadvantaged youth. But Baird never seemed to grasp that the art of politics is about persuasion.

In the interests of leadership, the Premier wanted to appear decisive, but his failure to consult tripped him up again and again.

Sources close to Baird said yesterday that the outgoing Premier had a “crystal jaw”. The pressures of last year’s multiple battles wore him down, and he started giving consideration to quitting.

“It came as no surprise, he had been wanting to go for some time,” one said. “When things were going well, it was easier for him to keep going. But the stresses became too much.”

Politicians who abruptly walk away from public life often use the excuse that they want to spend more time with their family. The mantra is used so often, no wonder it attracts cynicism. In Baird’s case, no one doubted his genuineness yesterday when he revealed that his family was a big part of the equation. Not being around enough amounted to “pain” that he had endured for months.

His father, former state Liberal minister Bruce Baird, had been giving 24-hour care to his mother, who suffers from muscular dystrophy, yet now Bruce was out of action, requiring open-heart surgery. Baird’s sister, journalist Julia Baird, had suffered a recurrence of cancer. One of Baird’s daughters was set to marry; another faced her final year at school; his young son, whom he rarely saw, needed him more.

The price of power? Most certainly. But even some of Baird’s most ardent supporters can barely contain their disappointment: they regarded his leadership as the key to the NSW Coalition government’s stability and future success.

They believed Baird would trounce Labor in 2019, despite his woes.

When Baird the ex-banker gave an interview to The Weekend Australian in March 2011 on the eve of the election that would make him O’Farrell’s treasurer, he said he only wanted possibly one more term.

“If I am elected again, that would be eight years. I can’t see myself beyond three terms,” Baird said at the time. “If you can’t make a contribution in two to three terms, you never will.”

It all changed when Baird took the top job: suddenly the man who did not see himself as a career politician, and viewed his contribution to government as giving something back to the community, was committed to the long haul. But was he really?

Some supporters believe Baird should have thought more carefully before jumping into the breach when O’Farrell quit.

“He should have thought about this before,” one says. “When you take up the job of premier leading a government, it’s expected that you will govern and you’ll continue in that role. Otherwise don’t do it.”

Baird yesterday made the point, not invalid, that he had spent a decade in state politics — but it is difficult to avoid voter perceptions that he is leaving politics too soon. He took over from O’Farrell only in April 2014, and there is much left to do.

The timing of Baird’s exit — halfway through a four-year term, and shortly before the parliamentary year kicks off, might be good for him. It could help his successor, most likely party deputy and Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian, to settle into the top job.

Berejiklian, a former banker like Baird but single with no children, does not face the same sorts of personal pressures.

But for Malcolm Turnbull, the abrupt Baird exit brings mixed tidings. Just when Turnbull wants to regain the political advantage nationally after a shaky six months since almost losing the federal election, the Premier’s departure is a reminder of the Prime Minister’s own volatile environment. While Turnbull ended the year on a good note of sorts by passing legislation and staring down Bill Shorten’s Labor opposition, he faces a raft of problems.

Baird’s exit is yet another case of the nation’s revolving door of leaders, state and federal. It is a gift to Shorten, not to mention the NSW opposition led by the otherwise struggling state Labor leader Luke Foley.

Turnbull has a budget problem to fix, a restive backbench of right-wingers still possibly yearning for the return of Tony Abbott, and an expenses scandal that runs right through his frontbench and has already claimed the scalp of his health minister. The year has not even started in earnest.

On the bright side for Turnbull, as one NSW party insider put it yesterday, Baird’s exit could perversely aid the Prime Minister by persuading even his critics that it is counterproductive, possibly politically suicidal, to get rid of yet another leader.

Abbott summed up the feeling when he said that the public was tired of the “constant turnover” of prime ministers and premiers. “Voters yearn for stability and certainty,” he said.

Family woes aside, the career future for Baird is no doubt bright. He admitted as much yesterday: he had received past approaches from business people indicating that jobs would be there for him if he wanted one.

Meanwhile, Baird leaves behind a party that is factionally divided between its moderate and far-right groups. Berejiklian, a mod­erate, is set to replace Baird and confirmed yesterday that she would contest the leadership. Her only possible rivals lack the numbers.

In internal NSW Liberal Party warring, that mimics to some degree the factional wrangling for which Labor is renowned, the risk for Berejiklian is that she will be branded a puppet of the moderate faction warriors Michael Photios and his NSW colleague Nick Campbell. Photios and Campbell have already attracted much criticism because of their business roles as political lobbyists. Abbott has led the charge with claims that they exert too much influence, control numbers and have possible conflicts of interest.

Those who know Berejiklian say she is no puppet. According to one view, “Some people underestimate Gladys — she is a very nice person, likeable in the mould of Annastacia Palaszczuk in Queensland. She’ll also perform. She’s tough and a stickler for probity. She would squash anyone who tried to tell her what to do.”

One of Berejiklian’s first tasks, assuming she becomes premier, will be to execute a cabinet reshuffle that Baird was set to do. Expected departures include Attorney-General Gabrielle Upton, Justice and Police Minister Troy Grant and Health Minister Jillian Skinner. Promotions could include Innovation Minister Victor Domi­nello and the recently elected former barrister Alister Henskens.

The timing of this pending reshuffle was one of the factors in Baird’s decision to bow out now. He decided to make himself part of­ it.

One of his final public comments as Premier was a plea for others like him — talented people in the private sector — to do valuable community work by entering politics or seeking top public sector positions. Baird enthusiasts wish he had stayed the course.

LIFE AND TIMES

1968
Mike Baird born in Melbourne, son of Liberal politician Bruce and wife Judy

1970s
Educated at the King’s School, Parramatta, and in New York, where Bruce Baird headed the Australian Trade Commission
1980s
Majored in economics at the University of Sydney

1990
Married Kerryn Wadeisha from Perth; they have three children: Laura (b. 1996), Cate (1999) and Luke (2003)

1995
Took a break from what would be an 18-year banking career to study to become a minister at a Christian college in Canada
MARCH 2007
After a bitter preselection battle, elected member for the seat of Manly, where he surfed with his friend Tony Abbott
APRIL 2011
Appointed NSW treasurer

JUNE 2011
Set out to cut 5000 public sector jobs in his first budget

JUNE 2012
His second budget brought NSW back into the black although embarrassing errors meant a surplus of $680 million at first was reported as a deficit of $337m

APRIL 2014
Stepped up as NSW’s 44th premier after Barry O’Farrell resigned for giving an anti- corruption hearing “inaccurate” evidence about the gift of a $3000 bottle of vintage Grange

DECEMBER 2014
Brought the grieving city of Sydney together after the Lindt cafe siege

MARCH 2015
Won a second term for the Coalition in the face of a scare campaign by Labor and unions opposed to privatisation of the electricity network; rode high in opinion polls
FEBRUARY 1, 2016
Launched a national tax debate by advocating a 15 per cent GST as a way to fund income tax cuts and pay for health and education costs

FEBRUARY 9
Waged a social media war with critics over night-life restrictions in Sydney and alcohol-fuelled violence

MAY
Announced a series of contentious local council amalgamations

JUNE
Restored NSW finances, reporting first cash-positive position in the state’s history

JULY
Declared a statewide ban on greyhound racing, citing animal cruelty

OCTOBER 10
Reversed the ban, confessing his government had got it wrong; dipped in the polls

OCTOBER 12
Backed down over anti-shark measures for the NSW north coast; another shark attack at Ballina forced the government to agree to install shark nets

OCTOBER 20
Secured $16.2 billion for the lease of NSW’s poles and wires, enabling the government to fast-track spending in its massive infrastructure program

NOVEMBER
Lost his deputy, Nationals leader Troy Grant, after a huge swing in the Orange by-election
suggested a leadership out of touch
DECEMBER
Announced a partial backdown on pub closing times and lockout laws, which critics said had crippled Sydney’s night life