Donald Trump’s ‘you’re fired’ move exposes campaign cracks

Donald Trump campaigns with Corey Lewandowski, left.

No amount of saccharine gloss or bluster from Donald Trump can disguise it. Trump’s decision to sack his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, at such an advanced stage of the US presidential race, one month before the Republican National Convention and little more than four months before the election, is an overt sign his run for the White House could be in real trouble.

This week’s removal of Lewandowski, to whom Trump showed utmost loyalty when the campaign chief previously landed himself in hot water for allegedly assaulting a female reporter, is symptomatic of a broader, potentially crippling crisis for the New York real estate mogul.

Next month’s Republican convention in Cleveland is meant to anoint Trump formally as the party’s official nominee after he easily won more delegates than any other candidate in state primaries and caucuses.

With no experience in elected office, his unorthodox campaign relied on the sheer force of his outsized personality and an anti-establishment message that wooed alienated middle-class conservatives and blue-collar workers fed up with Washington’s dysfunction and supposed elitism.

What’s more, Trump has easily surpassed the target 1237 delegates without the traditional necessity of US politicking: money. For a minimal outlay, Trump instead used the media to promote his campaign by doing what he does best. He drew attention to himself with wild claims, insults and policy prescriptions that offered seemingly easy solutions to everything. Just don’t go into specifics — or facts — were his maxims as he advocated building a wall across the length of the Mexican border, expelling up to 12 million undocumented Hispanic migrants and imposing a ban on Muslims entering the US.

This close to winning the ­Republican nomination, a remarkable achievement, Trump needs to be at his strongest. But where is he?

No presumptive nominee’s campaign in modern presidential politics has been in such a parlous state at this late point. Even John McCain in 2008, despite a slow start, had the Republican Party united and supporting him by this stage. While behind Barack Obama in the polls, McCain had an organisation up and running across the country and large donations rolling in. He had the backing of voters attuned to his history as a war hero and old-style Republican.

Trump, by comparison, is in a muddle. A campaign finance report this week showed he had just $US1.3 million in the kitty for his campaign. It exposed how he had made no serious attempts to appeal to party fundraisers — and, in particular, the most valuable kind, known as “bundlers” — to generate the big money needed to run a national campaign. Nor does Trump, at this late stage, have any ground organisation in place in the “battleground” states needed to win the November election.

What Trump stands for is even less clear — he has positioned himself to appeal to conservatives, including former Tea Party supporters, with pronouncements that suggest endorsement of a new era of US foreign policy isolationism and trade protection. Yet many in the Republican Party doubt he is a true conservative. They know he has flirted with the Democrats in the past, and believe Brand Trump is pure opportunism: bending whichever way it suits to get what he wants.

Some sceptics have articulated that Trump could be secretly working to help Hillary Clinton, all but confirmed as the Democratic nominee. It is an absurd proposition, especially given Trump’s ego and ambition and outrageous claims he has thrown her way in recent days (“the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency” and “she needs to go to jail for the crimes she has ­already committed against this country”). But it is an indication nonetheless of the suspicions Trump’s candidacy has fuelled within his adopted party.

All of which raises a fundamental question if a Republican is to triumph in the presidential election: how can Trump compete from a standing start against the funding juggernaut and well-oiled party machine of Clinton? She is already many millions ahead in the money stakes. Last month alone she raised $US28m. She has had a large team in place working for her across the nation for some time in a nation of non-compulsory voting where “getting out the vote” can mean the difference between winning and losing. She has the nomination sewn up, and the Democratic Party behind her, despite rival Bernie Sanders hanging on and proving something of an irritation to her.

After topping Clinton in several polls, Trump is now lagging six points behind her. His “I told you so” response to the Orlando massacre and further alienation of demographic groups such as Hispanics is counting against him.

Many voters may not like Clinton, but she is undoubtedly a high-calibre candidate. Apart from blemishes such as the tragic terrorist attack on the Libyan consulate and private email scandal, her record as Obama’s first-term secretary of state impressed colleagues in both parties.

Apart from gun control, she errs on the conservative side on many issues. She is a former senator and knows how the White House works — intimately. She is safe, sensible, and certainly no Sanders socialist on Wall Street and government spending. On national security, she is more hawkish than Obama.

Some Republicans are considering voting for Clinton if the alternative is Trump. The other risk is Republicans staying home on election day.

The growing dread among ­Republican leaders is that the party’s chances of winning back the White House from the Democrats on November 8 after two terms of Obama are fading fast. The despondency is feeding on ­itself. There is talk among a core group of disgruntled ­Republicans calling itself Delegates Unbound of ignoring the will of a clear majority in the primaries who endorsed Trump — and instead drafting a replacement who can inspire broader voter appeal.

The difficulty with this proposition is that no clear alternative to Trump exists. Paul Ryan, the House speaker and former Romney vice-presidential candidate, is well regarded, but not in the race. Other supposed heavy hitters who were in the race such as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Jeb Bush could not go the distance. In this field the most inspirational candidate is … Trump.

Realistically, it is too late to find a saviour to replace him. For a start, Trump would not stand for it. He would argue, with justification, that he won the party’s primary contest fairly and convincingly. Trump has 1542 delegates and his nearest rivals are Texas senator Cruz with 559 and Ohio governor Kasich on 161. He would expect the rules committee of the convention to accept his coronation as a formality.

Ditching Trump next month would only compound the Republicans’ problem by most likely provoking an open rebellion that could tear the party apart too close to the election. It would have a trickle-down effect for other election contests in the House and Senate, damaging the Republicans’ congress majority.

Trump could easily find justification to break his word, if dumped, and run as an independent. He would then draw votes away from an alternative Republican presidential candidate, and guarantee a Clinton victory much bigger than the one she looks like scoring now.

Lewandowski turned out to be the right manager for the unprecedented type of early campaign run by Trump: it was lean, loose, low budget and focused almost entirely on the candidate’s whims. But everything Lewandowski brought to the early part of the nomination battle, mainly by “letting Trump be Trump”, is wrong for the national campaign.

Pressure has been building to replace Lewandowski with an experienced campaigner. Reports suggest Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, involved in the campaigns of Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr, had run-ins with Lewandowski over his erratic tactics.

Manafort is set to take over the Trump campaign and help turn him into a more serious contender by tamping down his wild, reckless side, and broadening his appeal. Manafort has the connections, as well, to build a bridge between brand Trump and the Republican establishment that is vital for money and organisation.

Assuming he gets through the Republican convention on July 18 to 21, the funding on a large scale is likely to start rolling into Trump’s coffers and the Republican ­machine will rev up. But it is getting too late for such a revamp, which should have come earlier.

Fred Malek, Republican Governors Association finance chairman, told The Washington Post that Trump could not build an organisation that was competitive against Clinton in the time available, even if donors suddenly became enthusiastic.

Trump took time out from the campaign last night, arriving for a scheduled visit to his Turnberry golf course in Scotland with immaculate timing. Volunteering his take on the Brexit result, Trump called it “a great thing” and said it reflected similar anger over “borders” in the US.

Ultimately, the thing that could bring Trump undone is Trump himself. There were signs of it this week when, despite the Lewandowski “you’re fired” moment, Trump resorted to extremes in attacking Clinton, and tried to deflect questions about his financial dealings by attacking the press as “sleaze” and “the most dishonest people I’ve ever met”.

Such tactics could work a little longer — but questions about a victims’ class action against Trump for alleged fraud involving the university that carries his name look like they are starting to bite. The US media could find interesting things about the real estate billionaire if it keeps digging, and does some fact checking.