An outsider’s chance

JOKO Widodo raises hopes of true democracy in Indonesia.

INDONESIA’S Electoral Commission yesterday evening faced last-minute pressure from presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto to derail its announcement of Joko Widodo as Indonesia’s new leader, and rob him of legitimacy.

Prabowo said he was “withdrawing” from the election he had already lost, claiming “massive cheating that is structured and systematic”. However, at best he could only hope to delay the formal announcement, and as The Australian went to press it remained clear that Joko, widely acclaimed as clean from corruption, would be declared winner of the July 9 poll by about 5 per cent — some seven million votes — and would be inaugurated as president on October 20.

Prabowo had not confirmed whether he would appeal the outcome to the Constitutional Court, but the gap appears too large for it to be overturned, despite his claims.

Joko, who grew up in a bamboo shack, Indonesia’s equivalent of the American log cabin, marks a clean break from the post-independence era of generals, dictators, tycoons and aristocrats and their families and associates.

He has charisma, but it derives from visits to the homes of ordinary citizens and his accessibility, rather than from the traditional stadium orations and promises of restored glory that his aristocratic rival Prabowo, a former special forces commander, had hoped would sweep him to power.

For the first time, the Indonesian on the street or in the village has a leader with whom they can readily identify. Joko is less prone to cronyism simply because — so far — he lacks cronies with the capital to leverage influence into favourable policies, decisions and appointments.

Malcolm Cook, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, describes Joko as “the first post-New Order president, with even less of an insider’s path to power than (US President) Barack Obama.

“As with Obama, Jokowi’s win has spurred true hope that Indonesian democracy is open to everyone and not just the entrenched political elite.”

Joko, Jakarta’s governor, becomes the second president to be elected directly — following the twice-chosen Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former general well-disposed to Australia, under whom the economy grew steadily.

For Australia, developing constructive ties with Joko, untested as a national-level politician, will prove crucial, for the weight of the relationship continues to hinge on elite links. The “ballast” that former foreign minister Gareth Evans and his successors have sought to develop has not materialised in any substantial way.

And while Joko’s term is five years, he may, like SBY, win a second term, to serve the maximum constitutionally permitted, a decade. This prospect reinforces the importance for Tony Abbott of building early connections, attending the inauguration, underlining his mantra of “more Jakarta and less Geneva”.

Tim Lindsey, director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society at the Melbourne Law School and chairman of the Australia Indonesia Institute, tells The Australian that across SBY’s term, “both Australian parties overdrew the account of Indonesian goodwill”. Because of the closeness of the election, he says, the resulting legitimacy issue will probably prompt Joko to demonstrate, at least for the first six months of his presidency, that he is prepared to be tough, including in his handling of issues with Australia.

Joko, Lindsey says, stressed during the campaign that “just because I am reasonable doesn’t mean I can’t be firm”. As mayor and governor, he has shifted ­people from longstanding slums into modern housing, Lindsey says. And if talking fails to achieve results, he has been prepared to bulldoze unhealthy city facilities.

The new president will also require that toughness, complemented by immense diplomatic skills and charm, to persuade the parliament to pass his legislation.

Ross Taylor, president of the Indonesia Institute, warns that “with considerable leverage within the parliament, and with almost half the nation backing him, Prabowo may set out to continue his ‘black’ campaign to destabilise the new leader.”

The party Joko represents — the PDIP, founded by Sukarno’s daughter and former president, Megawati Sukarnoputri — was lacklustre in its campaigning this year, limiting Joko’s legislature support to just 19 per cent in direct terms at the parliamentary election in April.

The absence of a party whip system and pervasive parliamentary support-buying mean votes have to be brokered one by one, almost regardless of party loyalties. The government, however, probably will be aided by the shift of support of Golkar, the second largest party, which secured 15 per cent of the vote in April. It backed Prabowo but is set to move, with its former chairman Jusuf Kalla now to become vice-president.

Richard Martin, Singapore-based managing director of analysts IMA Asia, says: “The next few weeks may all be about (Golkar chairman and powerful tycoon) Aburizal Bakrie: what he wants, when he’ll ditch Prabowo, and whether Joko will stomach cutting a deal with him, as it would have to fly in the face of his promise to deliver good government.” The inadequacy of the PDIP campaign, however, will free Joko of the need to defer to the palace circle of Megawati in appointing people to the cabinet, which is likely to be weighted towards technocrats rather than career politicians.

Marty Natalegawa appears ready to continue as Foreign Minister, but Joko may look elsewhere.

The protocol being negotiated between Australia and Indonesia has yet to be completed, but the crisis atmosphere that drove it has calmed, and it seems likelier to resemble an extension to the 2006 Lombok Treaty that frames the countries’ security arrangements, than a more limited good-behaviour bond binding Australia. It may even be completed during the remainder of SBY’s term, with Joko’s nod of approval. Nevertheless, Canberra will have to work harder on this key relationship.

Andrew O’Neil, head of the school of government and international relations at Griffith University, says: “Joko’s accession may not necessarily be positive for Australia. Much of the case in favour of Joko has stemmed from the observation that his opponent Prabowo doesn’t really like Australia.” But, unlike SBY, “who had built up significant international experience as a senior general and as a minister, Joko has no international experience to speak of”.

“Whether Joko turns to cosmopolitan internationalists or to inwardly focused nationalists for advice will to a large degree shape his foreign policy towards Australia. If he turns to both, we could be in for a period of swings and roundabouts.”

Andrew MacIntyre, deputy vice-chancellor international at RMIT University, says: “There was a very vigorous contest between two quite distinct candidates that faithfully represented strands of the Indonesian electorate. Our core interests are for Indonesia’s continued economic advancement and democratic consolidation. Joko advances both.” His instincts and priorities will be domestically oriented.

IMA Asia’s Martin says: “What it means for Australia boils down to what a strong or weak Indonesia means for Australia. Geopolitically, ASEAN and Australia need a strong Indonesia to help counter China’s growing thrust into the South China Sea and down the Mekong River. ASEAN is on the frontline, and if its biggest state is weakened then China’s control over Southeast Asia will jump in the balance of the decade.” China, he says, will be “quick to provide a politically discredited and weak Indonesian government with vital financial and trade support”.

PricewaterhouseCoopers partner Andrew Parker anticipates that despite protectionist overtones during the election campaign, Indonesia’s economy will continue to climb. The International Monetary Fund is projecting growth of 5.8 per cent next year. But the country will need outside help, he says, to continue to provide the infrastructure and services to support its rapidly growing population — with about 40 per cent of its gross domestic product driven by foreign businesses and investments.

Taylor says while Joko may be tempted to take a far more nationalistic approach, “the reality is that Australia can offer so much to help develop Indonesia whilst building opportunities for our own country at the same time” — including in agribusiness, infrastructure, education and health.

“As a matter of urgency we need to get over the boats-and-Bali mindset, which has sucked the oxygen out of the relationship. Ironically, Abbott’s tough stance on people-smuggling will help that change, since this issue is already fading into the background as boatpeople stop making their way through Indonesia to Australia.”

However, Taylor warns: “Make no mistake, terrorism is making its way back onto our doorstep. Indonesia and Australia simply must have a close relationship to ensure we address this re-emergence of Jihadist groups.”

He describes the election process as “a major win for democracy. Whilst Indonesians look at the disintegration of the democratic dream in the Arab Spring’ countries, they can take considerable pride in pointing out that this sprawling archipelago, with so many ethnic and religious groups, has quietly held on to its democratic principles and vision. That’s good for Indonesia, for Australia, for the region and for what is currently a very fragile world.”