Indigenous voice to parliament: Unambiguous choice for Liberals wrestling with identity crisis

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

The choice that faces Peter ­Dutton and the Liberal Party is unambiguous.

Does the party risk landing on the wrong side of history should the voice referendum succeed, be blamed if it fails or taunt its ageing base by trying to find a middle ground position cloaked in ­ambiguity?

The political consequences could be long-lasting for a party ­already wrestling with a crisis of identity.

With 55 per cent of Coalition voters opposed to the Indigenous voice to parliament, it’s hard to see how Dutton can land on a position inconsistent with a majority of its diminished ­constituency.

Yet there is more at stake. If the party’s future lies with attracting younger voters back to the conservative side of politics, it can’t ­ignore the 68 per cent of 18 to 34 year olds who support altering the Constitution to achieve it.

This is symbolic of the position the party finds itself in across a range of policy debates.

The demographic divide is stark, and not just on the voice.

The danger for the Liberal Party is that it ends up on the wrong side of multiple debates.

There is an unmistakeable divergence in the way Australians are lining up, starkly evident when it comes to the voice.

At its foundation is a division between generations. Older ­people have demonstrably lower levels of support for the voice, which is perhaps unremarkable and may be more a reflection of a reluctance to changing the Constitution than the principle of Indigenous recognition itself.

At the same time, more than two-thirds of younger people and more than half the middle-aged are in favour. As are the tertiary educated, those on higher incomes and ethnic voters.

This all poses a serious dilemma for Dutton.

 

One option is for him to allow a conscience vote, as moderate MPs are pushing for. Yet this might serve only to find the least number of people it can offend rather than appeal to a more substantial ­citizenry.

And it would only reinforce the indictment that the party is too timid to stand for anything.

The Newspoll results will give Liberal MPs a lot to think about when they walk into the partyroom meeting on Wednesday to decide which path they will take.

The argument that the model being proposed in Anthony Albanese’s bill is lacking in critical detail is valid, and the Liberal Party has a responsibility to interrogate such consequential changes to the Constitution.

But the poll results suggest this debate over detail and the fears of legal risk appear to not have yet registered with voters.

And if they have, those concerns are being outweighed by the brand of moral persuasion that Albanese has engaged as his primary weapon in the fight.