ICUs preparing to ramp up ahead of Covid-19 ‘worst-case scenario’

Hospitals across Sydney are making urgent plans to ratchet up ICU capacities, but specialists say they are well prepared for ‘a worst-case scenario’.

As contact tracers battle to contain the spread of the rapacious Delta variant, Covid-19 wards across Sydney’s major hospitals are making urgent plans to ratchet up intensive care unit capacities in the event of a “worst-case scenario”.

An analysis by The Australian reveals NSW is recording higher levels of hospitalisation, including ICU admissions, in the current outbreak than Victoria did at the same stage of its outbreak last year.

With the suspension of all non-urgent surgeries at Greater Sydney hospitals to come into effect on Tuesday, ICU occupancy has reached its highest levels since the beginning of the state’s outbreak on June 16 — recording 54 patients on Sunday.

But specialists say strategies to boost capacity across some of Sydney’s hardest-hit LGAs are well under way, after contingency plans were devised as early as April 2020 — predating Melbourne’s July outbreak.

Last year, analysis by a group of leading ICU specialists concluded nationwide bed capacity could rise by 200 per cent in the event of an emergency.

While NSW hospitals have approximately 900 intensive care beds, health officials also confirmed on Friday capacity could quadruple in a worst-case scenario, with enough ventilators available for each bed.

Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society vice president Mark Nicholls said hospitals across the state are well placed to deal with any escalation in admissions.

“We are having a surge now, but everyone has reorganised and can implement the plans established last year at any moment.

 

“ICUs are not an infinite resource and the evidence suggesting Delta is a more virulent strain is becoming increasingly compelling and a cause for concern.”

A comparison of Greater Sydney’s current outbreak with Melbourne’s last winter reveals that despite lower case numbers and the rollout of vaccines, NSW continues to record higher levels of hospitalisation than Victoria did in July 2020.

Since the beginning of this outbreak, approximately 6 per cent of all recorded cases in NSW have been admitted to hospital, while Victoria recorded 3 per cent. Moreover, NSW continues to record higher levels of ICU admissions, with 23 per cent of all Covid patients requiring intensive care.

But Dr Nicholls insists there is no need to panic. “You need to remember we have been dealing with Covid-19 patients for a long time, and these procedures have become routine for us.”

While it remains unclear whether Delta causes longer hospital stays, Dr Nicholls said data collected at the end of the surge will play a crucial role in re-opening Australia’s borders. “When we have the full hospitalisation data … we will begin to plan for a final ‘exit surge’, when the government can use admission information to make sure hospitals don’t reach capacity as borders reopen and the virus passes through the population. This is one reason why vaccination is so critical.”

However, even in the best-case scenario, Dr Nicholls predicts hospitals will still be treating Covid-19 patients for at least three more years.