Hospitals brace for fresh Covid-19 wave

Health authorities are preparing for more than 5000 Covid-19 hospitalisations across the country within weeks.

Residents in NSW are being encouraged to update their Covid-19 vaccinations and wear masks in enclosed spaces. Picture: Getty Images

Health authorities are preparing for more than 5000 Covid-19 hospitalisations across the country within weeks but intensive care units will be spared from much of the pressure during the winter Omicron wave.

Modelling considered by state governments predicts that the current BA.5 wave will peak at a similar level of hospitalisations to that of the first Omicron wave in January when a high of almost 5400 people were in hospital with Covid-19.

It means that at the peak of this winter wave, about one in 10 hospital beds nationwide will be taken up with Covid-19 patients. That’s a level of hospitalisation around four times higher than last spring’s Delta wave of infections.

But despite the high rates of hospital admissions, intensive care units – which are always close to full, especially in winter – have been spared from being overrun as a result of Covid-19.

During the BA.2 Omicron wave, when hospitalisations were about 4400 on January 14, there were 363 people in ICU in public hospitals nationwide. Hospitalisations are now at a similar level, but only 131 people are in ICU, and modelling predicts that the ICU admissions during this BA. 5 wave will peak well below those of January.

The reason for less demand on ICU is being put down to the ­immunity against Omicron conferred by boosters vaccines, indications that the BA.5 sub-variant appears to cause less serious disease, and the fact that in January, a proportion of cases were still Delta, which caused more severe illness.

The pressure on hospitals of the winter flu season is also easing, with federal government data ­revealing laboratory-confirmed flu cases have fallen in recent weeks.

The latest federal health ­department flu surveillance report said influenza-like-illness activity in the community peaked in May and June.

There were 36,719 laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications in the fortnight to July 3, compared with 55,101 notifications up to the fortnight ending June 19.

But the sheer numbers of ­people being infected with the BA.5 variant, which is estimated to be 50 per cent more infectious than BA.1, is putting all levels of the health system under severe strain. The nation recorded 31,905 new infections on Monday and hospitalisations rose by 170 people to 4283.

Australian Medical Association vice-president Chris Moy said hospitals were “facing a really big threat”.

“I’ve not heard health authorities so worried for quite a period of time behind the scenes, because we’re extremely worried about facing BA.4 and 5 Omicron variants which are more infectious and cause more reinfections,” Dr Moy said.

“More people are ending up in hospital just when our hospitals are absolutely chock-a-block full because they’ve been neglected for so long. We’re just about to enter a much worse phase.”

 

The warning comes as a paper published in the Medical Journal of Australia said Covid-19 had ­become Australia’s second-leading cause of death after coronary artery disease this year.

That was despite the case fatality rate from the disease plummeting due to vaccination and natural immunity.

Almost 3000 Australians died of Covid in the first quarter of the year, and 95 per cent of all infections from the virus have occurred since January.

The case fatality rate has dropped from 3 per cent in 2020 when the original strain was infecting people in Victoria, to only 0.1 per cent during the Omicron waves.

This fatality rate is comparable to the seasonal influenza case fatality rate seen in “normal” flu years.