Don’t bother with your woolies, a warm winter is on weatherman’s radar

It is the first day of winter and drying systems on both sides of the contin­ent could keep the thermometer buoyed and rain at bay.

Amelia Forbes, 13, was rugged up for a walk at Manly beach. Picture: Adam Yip

Australians can expect a chilled rather than chilly winter, as drying systems on both sides of the contin­ent keep the thermometer buoyed and rain at bay.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the warm autumn conditions in much of the country are likely to continue unchecked, with most of the land in for sunny days and above-average temperatures.

BOM forecaster Andrew Watkins­ said a warm patch over the eastern Pacific Ocean was keeping moisture away from Australi­a, although its drying ­influence would be softened by higher than normal temperatures over the Coral Sea. The conditions were mirrored over the Indian Ocean, where a hot spot far to the west was drawing rain towards drought-­ravaged Africa.

“Much of Australia’s looking to be warmer than average,” said Dr Watkins, who runs the ­bureau’s climate prediction services.

This was particularly the case in southern Victoria, Tasmania, coastal NSW and southwestern Western Australia, with the odds of unseasonal warmth rated as four out of five.

Melbourne could expect temp­eratures up to 3C above the ­average maximum of 15C, he said. Sydney could look forward to a maximum temperature range of 18C-21C, Perth slightly higher at 19C-22C, and Brisbane 22C-25C.

Dr Watkins said agricultural regions in southern Australia, with the possible exception of eastern Tasmania, could expect less winter rain than usual. While winter could be slightly wetter than average in the tropics, it would still be dry.

He said there was a 50 per cent chance of El Nino conditions ­developing later in the year, making­ things even warmer and dryer. This was twice the usual risk, he said.

But none of this should dampen the spirits of farmers in the agricultural belt, where soil is relatively moist. Dr Watkins said the conditions could even be a bonus.

“Warmth over winter keeps those soil temperatures a little higher,” he said. “Nice warm, wet soils are great for getting the crop growing.”

Even skiers would have little to complain about, with the dry outloo­k for the Alps promising “fantastic” conditions for snow-making.

However, medicos warned that winter sniffles could trigger something worse. Lorcan Ruane, a medical officer at the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, said the risk of heart attack rose 17 times after people contracted respiratory infections.

Sydney University infectious diseases professor Robert Booy said people were more prone to flu in winter, not only because of the effects of cold, but also ­because it forced them to spend more time together indoors.