Queensland Greens facing nightmare election night with hold on state seats now in jeopardy

Both of the party’s state MPs have faced stronger-than-expected challenges in their inner Brisbane electorates, with the results likely to have repercussions for the next federal election.

Amy McMahon, Greens MP, voting at St Paul’s Anglican Church, East Brisbane. Photo: Steve Pohlner

The Greens’ projected march through suburban Brisbane has all but turned into a political nightmare, with the minor party on the verge of losing at least one its Queensland seats and failing to pick up any new electorates.

Greens insiders on Sunday morning remained hopeful of holding Maiwar, but the race was on a knife’s edge as counting continued.

Preferences from Labor candidate Susan Irvine, who is in third place, are highly favouring the Greens’ Michael Berkman, pushing him marginally ahead of the LNP’s Natasha Winters.

Labor appeared all but assured of winning back the seat of South Brisbane previously held by former deputy leader Jackie Trad, despite Greens scrutineers suggesting stronger pre-poll and postal votes would favour the Liberal National Party and return the seat to them on preferences.

But the likely net loss of one seat, and the possibility of another loss on top of that, has halted years of progressive gains in the inner suburbs of the Queensland capital, and is already shaping as a significant talking point ahead of the next federal election.

Labor and Liberal National Party insiders said the return of South Brisbane to Labor and the close-run contest between the LNP and the Greens in Maiwar would give them hope of winning back federal seats that flipped to the Greens in 2022.

It was a disastrous result for the minor party, which had fancied its chances of increasing its seat tally to four by picking up the Labor-held electorates of Cooper and McConnel.

But Labor maintained healthy margins in both seats and was on track to deliver a crushing blow by winning South Brisbane from Amy McMahon, who won the seat in 2020 off the back of LNP preferences that were directed to the Greens in a successful bid to unseat Ms Trad.

But this year the LNP put Labor ahead of the Greens on how-to-vote cards.

A Greens insider told The Australian the party would be closely scrutineering votes on Sunday and was confident that pre-poll votes favouring the LNP would put Labor in third place, with Labor preferences then set to benefit the Greens.

With 64 per cent of the vote counted, Ms McMahon was on 35 per cent, ahead of Labor’s Barbara O’Shea on 32.4 per cent.

LNP candidate Marita Parkinson was on 29.5 per cent and her preferences were flowing strongly to Labor, helping Ms O’Shea to leapfrog Ms McMahon, with an estimated 57 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

Michael Berkman voting at Rainworth State School.

In the other Green-held Brisbane seat of Maiwar, sitting MP Michael Berkman (34 per cent) was trailing the LNP’s Natasha Winters (40 per cent) after 73 per cent of votes were counted.

The tight race increases the significance of Labor preferences, with Labor’s Susan Irvine winning 23.2 per cent of the vote.

Preferences indicated Mr Berkman was leading the two-party-preferred vote 51.13 per cent to 48.87 per cent.

The results will be closely watched in Canberra after the Greens won three inner Brisbane seats at the last federal election, including Kevin Rudd’s old seat of Griffith, which was won by Max Chandler-Mather, and the former LNP electorates of Ryan and Brisbane.

Mr Berkman played down the likely loss of South Brisbane, focusing on the party’s increased statewide primary vote and blamed Labor for targeting the Greens.

“We are on track at least to see our highest statewide vote that we’ve ever achieved,” he told Sky News.

“You can take from that that the party is still growing.

“The other big takeaway from me is a Labor government more interested in fighting to keep the Greens out than fighting the LNP to retain government.

“If Labor and the LNP want to work together to fight against us, that’s the whole political establishment up against us here.”

Mr Berkman said Labor had adopted Greens policies like cheap public transport fares, free school lunches, free GP clinics and higher resource industry taxes to fight back against the progressive wave seen at the previous state and federal elections.

Asked if the result was a concern for the party ahead of the next federal election, Mr Berkman pointed to positive booth returns within targeted federal electorates.

“I don’t think we can take that away from it,” he said.

“You look at seats like Greenslopes, which is within Griffith and Miller, in the new target seat of Moreton, we saw really major swings to the Greens in those areas.

“I don’t think it’s a simple as suggesting we are in trouble federally because of anything we’ve seen today.

“What we’ve seen is Labor has been able to claw back a lot of ground by stealing our policies.”

Senior Labor Minister Grace Grace said the Greens had “thrown everything” at inner-Brisbane seats, including her own during the campaign and “it hasn’t materialised for them”.

“My sense was they were going backwards and I think that is what we are seeing in the results,” she told The Australian from her election party.

“The Greens promise the world and they don’t deliver. People have seen Greens get elected in federal and state seats and then they haven’t delivered.“

An ALP source said Steven Miles’s strong social media presence – particularly on the favourite platform of the 18-34 year olds Tik Tok – was a factor in keeping city ALP voters from straying to the Greens.

Another senior Labor insider said: “the Greens are having a very bad night. This is the Steven Miles effect”.

Greens loss gives federal Coalition, Labor ‘hope’

Nationals Leader David Littleproud branded the Greens as “extremists” and “political activists”, calling on Anthony Albanese to sign a pact with the Coalition preference the Left-wing party last at the next election.

Speaking after the Saturday’s Queensland election saw support for the minor party collapse, Mr Littleproud said the fall in support in Brisbane gave him hope the Coalition could win the seats at the next election.

“This is huge in Queensland, I think Ryan is definitely in play, I think Brisbane is also a chance for us as well when you look at the margins there,” Mr Littleproud told Sky News.

“I think Australians are realising this isn’t a political party, these are activists.

“Adam Bandt and his team won’t stand in front of the Australian flag, they’re prepared to stand with the CFMEU and they’re also trying to weaponise the conflict in the Middle East.

“I think Australians are working out, they’re not some cute cuddly little toy they can take comfort in, these people are extremists – and I think it’s been found out for what it is.

“So I think it’s a big message here, and I hope Labor with all its bluster they’re talking about has the courage to put them last.

“Because I think our democracy will be better without the Greens, I think there is enough diversity in our parliamentary system in our political system across a spectrum of political views that aren’t extreme and do add value to our democracy.

“If Labor is serious about this, take our hand and let’s make a pact, let’s put the Greens last.”

Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt said Queenslanders are experiencing “buyer’s remorse” over voting for the Greens, with the state election results reflecting a shift against the Left-wing party of “blockers and extreme activists”

“I think importantly it gives us a great amount of hope when it comes to some of the Brisbane base seats which are currently held by the Greens,” Senator Watt told Sky News.

“It gives us real hope that we could reclaim the seat of Griffith and potentially gain the seats of Brisbane and Ryan as well.

“What was really coming through from those voters which are currently held by the Greens federally, is a sense of buyer’s remorse.

“People voted for the Greens both at state and federal level expecting to see progressive solutions delivered and all they’ve ended up getting are a bunch of blockers and extreme activists, who seem increasingly out of touch with what voters in those areas think.

“We’ve had a lot of feedback that people really noticed Max Chandler-Mather onstage with the CFMEU, pursuing an extreme agenda there.

“They’re obviously trying to whip up anger and anxiety in the community over Palestine and constantly blocking Labor when we’re trying to deliver progressive reform on housing and even introducing an environmental protection agency.”

Crossbench takes shape

Elsewhere on the crossbench, Katter’s Australian Party has comfortably held the three north Queensland seats it won in 2020 – Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook – and is putting up a strong fight in Mirani, where One Nation convert Steven Andrew, who joined the KAP at the end of the term, appears to be marginally ahead of the LNP.

Mr Andrew was dumped from One Nation in August after-party leader Pauline Hanson accused him of going missing during parliamentary debates.

He was quickly picked up by the KAP.

With 37 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Andrew was sitting on 27.6 per cent, behind the LNP’s Glen Kelly on 35.7 per cent.

But both One Nation (10.8) and Labor (20.1) had sizeable portions of the primary vote and their preferences are expected to favour Mr Andrews.

Independent MP Sandy Bolton has comfortably held her Noosa seat, winning almost 44 per cent of the primary vote.