Queensland Greens facing nightmare election night with hold on state seats now in jeopardy

Both of the party’s state MPs have faced stronger-than-expected challenges in their inner Brisbane electorates, with the results likely to have repercussions for the next federal election.

Amy McMahon, Greens MP, voting at St Paul’s Anglican Church, East Brisbane. Photo: Steve Pohlner

The Greens’ projected march through suburban Brisbane has all but turned into a political nightmare, with the minor party on the verge of losing both its Queensland seats and failing to pick up any new electorates.

Labor was ahead of the Greens in South Brisbane and the LNP had edged in front of the left-wing party in Maiwar at the end of last night’s counting.

Greens insiders late on Saturday night insisted the race was not over in South Brisbane, despite Labor appearing all but assured of winning back the seat previously held by former deputy leader Jackie Trad.

But the likely net loss of one seat, and the possibility of another loss on top of that, has halted years of progressive gains in the inner suburbs of the Queensland capital, and is already shaping as a significant talking point ahead of the next federal election.

Labor and Liberal National Party insiders said the return of South Brisbane to Labor and the close-run contest between the LNP and the Greens in Maiwar would give them hope of winning back federal seats that flipped to the Greens in 2022.

It was a disastrous result for the minor party, which had fancied its chances of increasing its seat tally to four by picking up the Labor-held electorates of Cooper and McConnel.

But Labor maintained healthy margins in both seats and was on track to deliver a crushing blow by winning South Brisbane from Amy McMahon, who won the seat in 2020 off the back of LNP preferences that were directed to the Greens in a successful bid to unseat Ms Trad.

But this year the LNP put Labor ahead of the Greens on how-to-vote cards.

A Greens insider told The Australian the party would be closely scrutineering votes on Sunday and was confident that pre-poll votes favouring the LNP would put Labor in third place, with Labor preferences then set to benefit the Greens.

With 53 per cent of the vote counted, Ms McMahon was on 35.2 per cent, ahead of Labor’s Barbara O’Shea on 32.3 per cent.

LNP candidate Marita Parkinson was on 29.2 per cent and her preferences were flowing strongly to Labor, helping Ms O’Shea to leapfrog Ms McMahon.

Michael Berkman voting at Rainworth State School.

In the other Green-held Brisbane seat of Maiwar, sitting MP Michael Berkman (33.8 per cent) was trailing the LNP’s Natasha Winters (40.6 per cent) after 66 per cent of votes were counted.

The tight race increases the significance of Labor preferences, with Labor’s Susan Irvine winning 227 per cent of the vote.

The results will be closely watched in Canberra after the Greens won three inner Brisbane seats at the last federal election, including Kevin Rudd’s old seat of Griffith, which was won by Max Chandler-Mather, and the former LNP electorates of Ryan and Brisbane.

Mr Berkman played down the likely loss of South Brisbane, focusing on the party’s increased statewide primary vote and blamed Labor for targeting the Greens.

“We are on track at least to see our highest statewide vote that we’ve ever achieved,” he told Sky News.

“You can take from that that the party is still growing.

“The other big takeaway from me is a Labor government more interested in fighting to keep the Greens out than fighting the LNP to retain government.

“If Labor and the LNP want to work together to fight against us, that’s the whole political establishment up against us here.”

Mr Berkman said Labor had adopted Greens policies like cheap public transport fares, free school lunches, free GP clinics and higher resource industry taxes to fight back against the progressive wave seen at the previous state and federal elections.

Asked if the result was a concern for the party ahead of the next federal election, Mr Berkman pointed to positive booth returns within targeted federal electorates.

“I don’t think we can take that away from it,” he said.

“You look at seats like Greenslopes, which is within Griffith and Miller, in the new target seat of Moreton, we saw really major swings to the Greens in those areas.

“I don’t think it’s a simple as suggesting we are in trouble federally because of anything we’ve seen today.

“What we’ve seen is Labor has been able to claw back a lot of ground by stealing our policies.”

Senior Labor Minister Grace Grace said the Greens had “thrown everything” at inner-Brisbane seats, including her own during the campaign and “it hasn’t materialised for them”.

“My sense was they were going backwards and I think that is what we are seeing in the results,” she told The Australian from her election party.

“The Greens promise the world and they don’t deliver. People have seen Greens get elected in federal and state seats and then they haven’t delivered.“

Ms Grace said the statewide results were still too close to call.

“I don’t think the LNP were as convincing as they thought they were. The more people saw of Steven Miles the more they liked him and the more they saw of David Crisafulli, the less they liked him.

“They were saying there would be a wipe-out, that we would be annihilated and that hasn’t eventuated.

“We fought for every single vote and I think they will have to count every single vote.”

An ALP source said Steven Miles’s strong social media presence – particularly on the favourite platform of the 18-34 year olds Tik Tok – was a factor in keeping city ALP voters from straying to the Greens.

Another senior Labor insider said: “the Greens are having a very bad night. This is the Steven Miles effect”.

Elsewhere on the crossbench, Katter’s Australian Party has comfortably held the three north Queensland seats it won in 2020 – Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook – and is putting up a strong fight in Mirani, where One Nation convert Steven Andrew, who joined the KAP at the end of the term, running close in Mirani.

Mr Andrew was dumped from One Nation in August after-party leader Pauline Hanson accused him of going missing during parliamentary debates.

He was quickly picked up by the KAP.

With 25 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Andrew was sitting on 25 per cent, behind the LNP’s Glen Kelly on 34 per cent.

But both One Nation (12.7) and Labor (20.95) had sizeable portions of the primary vote and their preferences are expected to favour Mr Andrews.

Independent MP Sandy Bolton has comfortably held her Noosa seat, winning almost 44 per cent of the primary vote.