Gold Coast seat of Gaven hopeful but not a given for Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon

One of Labor’s rising stars is on track to clinch back her Gold Coast seat in what is emerging as one of the tightest contests of the Queensland election.

Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon, left, has faced strong competition from former journalist Bianca Stone in the seat of Gaven.

One of Labor’s rising stars is on track to retain her Gold Coast seat in one of the tightest contests of the Queensland election.

Former Labor housing minister Meaghan Scanlon led Liberal National Party candidate, former television journalist Bianca Stone, by less than 400 votes in the northern Gold Coast hinterland electorate of Gaven on Tuesday afternoon. After preferences, the count has hovered around a one-percentage-point difference in Labor’s must-win seat.

Ms Stone has picked up the entirety of the 5.9 per cent swing against the incumbent MP.

The final outcome will not be known until next Wednesday after the Electoral Commission of Queensland removed the indicative two-party-preferred count from its website in anticipation of absent and postal votes being distributed around the state.

But on Tuesday, new Premier David Crisafulli said he did not believe Gaven could be won.

Gaven LNP candidate Bianca Stone handing out how-to-vote cards with David Crisafulli during the campaign. Picture: Liam Kidston

“I think in the final result, we will end up with 53 or 54 seats, which is far in excess of what we believed we would get,” he said

After being elected aged 23 in 2017 as Queensland's then youngest- ever female MP, Ms Scanlon held several ministries, including environment, housing and public works.

While former Queensland Speaker John Mickel, an adjunct associate professor at QUT, has never met her, he believes the potential loss of Ms Scanlon and Aspley MP Bart Mellish would be a big hit to the Labor Party’s future.

“The most immediate thing is it robs them of two talented people,” Mr Mickel said.

“To lose a talent like Meaghan Scanlon, to lose a toehold in a growth area, just adds to the misery.”

In Aspley, in Brisbane’s northern suburbs, Mr Mellish trails former Brisbane city councillor Amanda Cooper by about 250 votes after preferences. The seat appears likely to go to the LNP.

The seats of former transport minister Bart Mellish and former housing minister Meaghan Scanlon are still in the balance.

Mr Mickel said the northern Gold Coast is in need of a redistribution after experiencing strong population growth during the pandemic. Given Gaven is Labor’s only seat in the rapidly expanding region, he said the party must maintain its “fingernail grip” on the state’s southeastern corner

Analysis by The Australian has found the number of enrolled voters has ballooned 31 per cent in the lead-up to the state election compared to 2020, while the neighbouring seats of Coomera and Jordan have grown just over 21 per cent each.

“(A loss would be) massive in the sense of Labor’s destruction in the regions,” Mr Mickel said

“Radical surgery needs to be done in that Gold Coast area to bring those seats back into quota. Somewhere in there, there is another state seat by just the sheer weight of numbers.”

Mr Crisafulli’s Gold Coast seat of Broadwater was the only one to be declared by the ECQ on Tuesday.

More than 500,000 absentee ballots and telephone votes are in the process of being transferred to their correct electorates. Around 165,000 postal votes were outstanding, and will be accepted until next Tuesday.