From state of chaos to clear path out of Covid

Dominic Perrottet is expected to become NSW Premier today and name a new team that will steer the state out of lockdowns.

Dominic Perrottet will lso be forced to contend with at least three by-elections if he becomes NSW premier on Tuesday. Picture: Jane Dempster

Dominic Perrottet is expected to emerge as the next NSW premier on Tuesday, tasked with steering the country’s largest state out of Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions with a completely re-made senior team including a new deputy premier and treasurer.

Despite striking a deal with the NSW Liberal moderates, Mr Perrottet will face a leadership contest against Rob Stokes that he is likely to win ahead of an economic reopening within days, reinforcing his longstanding opposition to economy-damaging restrictions.

The new leader will take over a day after Deputy Premier John Barilaro announced his intention to resign, joining Transport Minister Andrew Constance and creating the need for an overhaul of the government on the eve of the state’s emergence from almost four months of lockdown.

The government will also be forced to contend with at least three by-elections, with government figures warning there may be more resignations to come.

The departure of Gladys Berejiklian on Friday, along with Mr Barilaro, have created a power vacuum in the Liberal Party and notionally emptied its cabinet positions as the state prepares to emerge from lockdown on Monday with hundreds of Covid-19 infections being recorded daily.

Rob Stokes is believed to have too few votes to navigate a path to become NSW premier. Picture: Chris Pavlich

Mr Stokes enters Tuesday’s leadership contest as an underdog and is believed to have too few votes to navigate a path to victory, largely due to a pact brokered between conservative and moderate factions of the Liberal Party over the weekend to shore up Mr Perrottet as leader.

However, supporters of Mr Perrottet remained cautious on Monday, saying that Mr Stokes had yet to pull out of the race and could conceivably gather a bloc of votes by making promises for coveted cabinet positions.

During interviews on Monday outside his home on Sydney’s northern beaches, Mr Stokes said he was committed to providing the party room with choice.

“I feel very confident that I have every chance of being successful,” he said, adding that he was committed to significantly increasing the representation of women in cabinet if he were to emerge as premier.

Blocking this pathway is an agreement brokered by Mr Perrottet, Energy Minister Matt Kean and Jobs Minister Stuart Ayres, who over the weekend became an unofficial contender for the leadership but withdrew to take the job of deputy leader under Mr Perrottet. Mr Kean had been seeking the deputy leadership position himself but supporters said he had told Mr Perrottet he would forgo the opportunity and provide it to Mr Ayres in order to reduce instability and assure the change.

The Australian understands that Mr Ayres was favoured as a deputy leader in large part because of his western Sydney credentials as the member for Penrith, a seat he retains with a 1.3 per cent margin. Polling provided to Mr Perrottet by NSW Liberal president Chris Stone showed western Sydney would emerge as a critical battleground at the 2023 election.

Elevating Mr Ayres would also play well against NSW Labor’s renewed leadership under Chris Minns and deputy leader Prue Car, the member for Londonderry, also in western Sydney. The party has made western Sydney a key plank of its policy pitch to voters, with an emphasis on cost of living pressures. Supporters of Mr Perrottet told The Australian that should he be successful, the Liberal-National Coalition would be “a government focused on western Sydney, the regions, and it will be a government for everyone”. Neither Mr Perrottet nor Mr Stokes returned requests for comment.

John Barilaro. Picture: Gaye Gerard

The Liberal moderate bloc consists of 23 out of a total 47 party room votes, of which 14 are understood to be locked in behind Mr Perrottet. Securing these votes for the right wing of the party was designed to avoid any incursions by the opposing centre-right faction, which earlier had sought to undermine Mr Perrottet by courting Mr Ayres, Mr Stokes and other MPs.

They were being offered up to 10 votes to run against Mr Perrottet, although this bloc is now understood to be locking in behind Mr Perrottet after some MPs begin splintering off to support him regardless; the Treasurer is expected to count a further 14 votes from the conservative edge of the Liberal Party, giving him ample support to secure the position. But ballots in themselves can be untidy, and should Mr Stokes secure enough partyroom support, a win by Mr Perrottet could still be regarded as victory over a divided party.

It is for this reason that the ballot will mark only the third time in 40 years that Liberal MPs have held a leadership contest. The last time occasion was in 2002 when John Brogden wrested the leadership from Kerry Chikarovksi, succeeding by a single vote.

Prior to that a contest was held in 1992 between Bruce Baird, John Fahey and Peter Collins, with Mr Fahey winning out.

Nationals MPs are expected to held their ballot for the leadership on Wednesday, with Water Minister Melinda Pavey confirming she will contest for the role. Education Minister Sarah Mitchell will nominate for the deputy leadership, she said. The party’s deputy leader, Paul Toole, said on Monday that he would consider his options.

Mr Barilaro, the leader of the NSW Nationals, delivered his resignation on Monday in front of NSW parliament, saying that he had been considering leaving politics for some time and had no roles lined up for the immediate future. He named media scrutiny, his own mental wellbeing, and a private defamation suit as motivating factors for the decision.

“Over the past 12 months especially, the very public defamation case that I have going on at the moment … it is unbelievable that I have to defend myself from vile and racist attacks in a social media setting by individuals,” he said. “And a trillion-dollar company like Google allows that sort of vile, racial attack on any individual, regardless of public figure or not, to remain is something that I can’t believe in 2021 still exists.”

Mr Barilaro, who turns 50 in November, also ruled out the possibility of a federal tilt, having previously tinkered with the idea in 2020 during a preselection contest for the federal seat of Eden-Monaro.