Don’t depend on Trump’s backing, says Tony Abbott

Tony Abbott sympathises with Donald Trump’s demands that allies pay their way and warns Australia must step up given his America First credo.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott: ‘American values can be relied upon but American help less so’. Picture: AAP

Tony Abbott has warned that under Donald Trump the American legions are returning home, the days of free-riding allies are terminated and Australia faces a new point in its existence — it must be prepared to resist adversaries in its own right.

In his speech to the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, Mr Abbott shatters the public pretence in Australia about the Trump presidency and says the President’s scepticism about alliances — even “family” alliances such as Australia — means our defence and security strategy must be transformed and strengthened.

Declaring that Mr Trump is a “consequential” president whose warnings about alliances must be taken seriously, Mr Abbott says Australia needs to increase defence spending well beyond 2 per cent, develop an anti-missile capability, rethink our maritime strategy and develop forces that can operate more independently “against even a substantial adversary”.

“A new age is coming,” Mr ­Abbott said. “The legions are going home. American values can be relied upon but American help less so. This need not presage a darker time like Rome’s withdrawal from Britain but more will be required of the world’s other free countries. Will they step up? That’s the test.”

Mr Abbott says Australia must step up in recognition of Trump’s “America First” credo. He says America under Trump will remain an ally but Trump’s mission is to transform America’s alliance relationships and Australia needs to grasp this reality and act upon it.

The significance of the Abbott speech is his warning that Australia must respond to the changed power equation Mr Trump seeks and this means the days of spending less on defence because of the alliance’s utility are finished.

“Being America’s partner as well as its friend will be even more important now given Trump’s obsession with reciprocity,” Mr Abbott said in his speech, delivered on Wednesday morning Washington time. Indeed, it may be the only hope of keeping America engaged in troubles that aren’t already its own.

“What Trump is making clear — to us and to others — is what should always have been screamingly obvious: that our nation’s safety now rests in our own hands, far more than anyone else’s.

“My instinct is that acquiring a capacity to strike harder and further and the need to give our country and our armed forces greater protection could soon require military spending well beyond 2 per cent of GDP. Our armed forces need to be more capable of operating independently against even a substantial adversary because that is what a truly sovereign nation must be prepared to do.

“When America spends 3 per cent-plus of the world’s biggest GDP on its armed forces, and the rest of the western world scarcely 2 per cent, it’s hard to dispute Trump’s view that most of us have been keeping safe on the cheap.”

Trump is attending the NATO summit this week having waged a relentless campaign demanding the European allies increase their defence spending and creating alarm about his commitment to the cornerstone western security system.

Abbott’s message is that Australia, as a close US ally, would be deluded to believe that Trump’s scepticism relates only to allies in Europe, Canada and Northeast Asia. He says that Trump is the most unconventional US president but that he means what he says and what he says will happen.

While supportive of Trump, Abbott’s reservations about the US President are undisguised. He warns the Trump nuclear agreement with North Korea could rebound against South Korea and allow pressure to be eased on a “dreadful regime”. He warns Trump’s beloved one-on-one diplomacy is “bad for making decisions”.

Abbott says that while Trump has so far treated Australia with “courtesy and respect”, that does not constitute “grounds for complacency in dealing with a transactional President”.

He believes Trump has “every chance” of being re-elected and Trump’s rule that allies must pay their own way will apply “even to ‘family’ like Britain, Canada and Australia”.

“And who can blame him?” Abbott says, showing sympathy for Trump’s obsession. Yet he highlights the dangers, saying an “America First” mindset has risks for Australia since Trump “might conclude that China should be left alone, even to oppress others, provided it doesn’t bother the US”.

Abbott says Trump is more honest than president Barack Obama “about the limits of American power”. He feels the US under Trump should remain a “reliable partner” but the lesson is “don’t expect too much”. In confronting the need for greater Australian strategic initiative, Abbott says: “Obtaining the capacity to shoot down incoming missiles could easily become a multi-million-dollar necessity.”

He says the navy will need to be “enlarged and strengthened”. He suggests Australia cannot wait 15 years before “just the first of the next generation of submarines becomes operational”. He casts doubt on the suitability of the current submarine construction deal with the French.

“There will almost certainly have to be more of our planes rotating constantly through the Butterworth air base in Malaysia,” he says.

“Our ships and submarines might need to spend more time operating from Singapore if they are more readily to be where they could be needed.

“America can’t be expected to fight harder for its Australian ally than we would be prepared to fight for ourselves, or to do more for Australia than we are ready to do for ourselves.”

On China, Abbott issues a stern warning: “China’s goodwill often seems conditional: on shunning the Dalai Lama, ignoring the slow squeeze on Hong Kong, abandoning Taiwan and ultimately on choosing China over America. These are not choices that any free country should have to make in order to be China’s friend.”

He criticises the Turnbull government for not adopting a more assertive foreign policy. Mr Abbott says Australia should have upgraded its Iraq mission to “advise, assist and accompany” as soon as America did; it should have mounted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea; and it should have welcomed the US embassy move to Jerusalem by moving the Australian embassy as well.