First Palestinian-Australian MP could be confirmed within days as Calwell count enters final stretch
The first Palestinian-Australian ever elected to federal parliament could be declared as soon as next week, with the Australian Electoral Commission poised to begin a complex full distribution of preferences in Calwell.
The Australian Electoral Commission will begin the full distribution of preferences in the federal seat of Calwell by Tuesday morning, in what it has described as the most “complex” vote count in Australian electoral history.
Located in Melbourne’s outer north, the seat of Calwell has been held by Labor since its creation in 1984.
But this year it has been thrown into uncertainty following a splintered result that saw 13 candidates divide the primary vote, making a traditional two-candidate preferred count unworkable.
With 87 per cent of votes counted, Labor’s Palestinian-Australian candidate Basem Abdo leads the primary vote with 30.5 per cent, followed by Liberal candidate Usman Ghani at 15.6 per cent. Independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana trail closely with 12.1 per cent and 11.3 per cent, respectively.
The remaining nine candidates collectively account for over 30 per cent of the primary vote, contributing to the complexity of the count.
The AEC has confirmed that a two-candidate preferred count was deemed unfeasible in Calwell due to the even spread of first preferences and initiated a three-candidate preferred count to better understand potential outcomes.
“Calwell will move to the distribution of preferences today or early tomorrow, depending on how long it takes the team to process any outstanding declaration and postal votes,” an AEC spokesperson said on Monday morning.“This is one of the most complex counts the AEC has ever conducted, and we are expecting the distribution of preferences to take at least until the end of the week.”
Mr Abdo’s three closest challengers have all preferenced each other above the ALP and put the party’s hold on the electorate at risk.
Ms Moore, a Labor-aligned three-time mayor, has directed her preferences to fellow independents, which could assist Mr Youhana in leapfrogging Mr Ghani by the end of the week.
If enough minor and independent flows consolidate behind either Ms Moore or Mr Youhana, it is entirely plausible that one could overtake Mr Ghani to face Mr Abdo in the final count — throwing the race wide open.
The ABC has estimated the preference flows in Mr Abdo’s favor, giving him 64.6 per cent of the vote against Mr Ghani at 35.4 per cent.
Mr Abdo, who was not backed by campaign groups Muslim Votes Matter and The Muslim Vote, did not respond to The Australian on Monday.
The groups both backed former asylum seeker Samim Moslih, whose campaigning was focused on Palestine and gained 6.8 per cent of the votes.
If elected, Mr Abdo would become the first Palestinian-Australian ever elected to federal parliament.
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