Fewer cyclones, later wet season to deepen crisis

Wet season will come later than normal this year, extending the drought crisis.

Drought to worsen, fewer cyclones ... A kangaroo finds a water tank on a property near Gunnedah in NSW last year. Picture: Reuters

Northern Australia is less likely to experience cyclones this summer and the wet season will come later than normal, extending the crisis for parched inland river systems and regions in drought.

Higher than average temperatures and lower than average rainfall will raise the risk of bushfires — which have already claimed lives and dozens of properties — and potentially also bring deadly heatwaves.

Giving its outlook for natural disasters on Monday, the Bureau of Meteorology declared it likely that the number of cyclones this season would be below the long-term average of 11.

There is also a lower risk of widespread flooding, although there may still be severe thunderstorms — neither of which will end the drought.

Three months of heat ... predicted temperatures from November to January.

“The increased odds of warmer than average days, coupled with a very dry landscape and a likely late start to the northern wet season, give a clear indication that we’re likely to see more heatwaves than normal,” the ­bureau’s head of long-range forecasts, Andrew Watkins, said.

“It also adds to the potential bushfire risk, particularly when you consider how dry many parts of southern and eastern Australia are at the moment.”

The east coast of NSW, in particular, carries a higher than normal risk of bushfire. Last week, an elderly couple was killed near Drake in the northeast and at least 45 houses were destroyed when fire swept through the area.

There have also been bushfires around southeast Queensland, and the bureau’s state manager, Bruce Gunn, on Monday described the outlook as “a pretty dangerous cocktail for fire conditions”.

There's not much rain on the horizon in the next three months.

Heatwaves can be one of the most deadly natural disasters. In 2009 some 432 people lost their lives during a heatwave in Victoria and South Australia.

While the drought has turned attention to diminishing dams, higher temperatures over summer will also put pressure on the electricity network through the increased use of air conditioners.

The bureau warned that parts of Queensland were still likely to experience major flooding or be hit with a cyclone. On average, four cyclones cross the Aus­tralian coastline each season.

“We’ve never had a tropical cyclone season without at least one cyclone crossing the coast,” Dr Watkins said.

Tropical cyclones in Australia this summer.

“This means that despite a reduced risk this season, all communities in northern Australia must be ready. Even if cyclones stay well out to sea, they can still pose a significant risk to property and lives through strong winds, intense rain and flooding, and storm surges.”

Rainfall in Australia in the year to September was the fourth lowest on record, while daytime temperatures were the highest on record. There is little sign of an El Nino or La Nina developing in the coming months, which has influenced the cyclone outlook.

Based on previous experience of similar weather patterns, the first cyclone to cross the coast is likely in late December.