Federal Liberals heavily involved in elevation of Brad Battin to the Victorian leadership
Not since Jeff Kennett was re-elected to run the party in 1991 has a Victorian Liberal leader been handed such a winnable path to government.
Brad Battin’s ascension to the leadership on the third attempt is a triumph of persistence over the toxic malaise that has gripped the Victorian party for decades.
It is also a triumph over petty internal snobbery that questioned whether a former cop and MP who ran a bakery could be handed the keys to what was once a treasured Liberal position.
Battin spoke relentlessly on Friday about the need for unity, which is ironic given his backers have torn to shreds his predecessor, John Pesutto.
They will argue, of course, that Pesutto committed political suicide over reincarnated Liberal MP Moira Deeming.
Which he did.
But these battles can come at a high price, even if Pesutto only occasionally looked like a leader who would pick up the 17 seats needed to win the 2026 election.
Driving much of the urgency around the December 27 vote is panic in Canberra that the state Liberals will bungle the looming federal election.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest the Liberals’ defeat in last year’s federal Aston by-election was fuelled at least in part by the internal bloodbath over Deeming.
The bigger picture is that Peter Dutton needs to win seats in Victoria if he wants to win government.
He and others were deeply worried the Spring Street cancer would spread into the federal sphere.
This has been driving much of the chatter over the months leading to Friday’s spill.
While much will be said about the split between Liberal moderates and the conservative groupings, a lot of what has happened is personality-based rather than anything deeply ideological.
To that end, what Battin offers is straightforward politics driven by unity, the cost of living, crime, and servicing the growth corridors.
It is these outer-suburban growth areas where Dutton and his backers believe there is blue sky for the Liberals.
Battin, the bloke from the suburbs, will be sold as an aspirational success story who understands the basic concerns of basic people.
Where the parallels can be made with 1991 are quite clear.
Jeff Kennett profited from a Labor budget and economy in crisis.
While the Victorian economy is not yet in crisis, the state’s budget most definitely is in 2024.
After more than a decade in power, Labor is failing to get out of its own way, carrying so much pandemic and post-pandemic political baggage that it will struggle to win the next election.
Battin’s mission possible is lined with political opportunity.
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