Federal election 2022: Josh Frydenberg poised to lose seat of Kooyong

Josh Frydenberg would lose the once blue-ribbon seat if an election were held today but predictions of a national ‘teal’ sweep would fall short.

Josh Frydenberg, centre, visits the pre-polling booth in Hawthorn, Melbourne, with former Victorian premier Ted Baillieu and independent candidate Monique Ryan, left. Picture: Nicki Connolly

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg would lose the once blue-ribbon Liberal electorate of Kooyong – formerly held by Sir Robert Menzies – to a Climate 200-funded candidate if an election were held today.

Mr Frydenberg’s fellow Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson would also succumb to a similarly backed independent in the nearby Melbourne bayside electorate of Goldstein, according to the most comprehensive poll conducted in Australia measuring voter intention across every seat in the country.

But the over-hyped predictions of a “teal” sweep of moderate Liberal-held seats by an army of left-wing independents aligned under Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 banner would fall well short of expectations, with the Coalition retaining the three inner-city Sydney seats of Wentworth, North Sydney and McKellar, which were also considered to be under threat.

A YouGov poll commissioned by The Australian, based on a survey sample of almost 19,000 voters across all 151 lower house seats, is the most comprehensive poll ever conducted in Australia.

The full results will be published in The Australian online tonight and in the print edition on Thursday.

It will show that only two of the 15 new candidates listed under the Climate 200 banner, according to its website, are likely to be elected based on current voting intention.

The current four sitting independents, Zali Steggall, Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie, all elected under previous platforms but now laying claim to Climate 200 sponsorship, would be re-elected.

This would mean the crossbench would increase by a net gain of only one in the lower house, with the former Liberal turned United Australia Party MP Craig Kelly unlikely to hold his seat.

With the polls suggesting the Greens would fail to secure an additional seat to its existing representation of one, the crossbench would likely peak at eight.

But while the threat of independents would appear to be conflated, according to the poll results, the potential impact for the future of Liberal Party remains significant.

Mr Frydenberg, touted as the next Liberal leader should the Coalition lose the election, is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat, with the YouGov poll showing the Climate 200 candidate Monique Ryan leading the race 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis.

This was derived from a primary vote of 38 per cent for Mr Frydenberg and 28 per cent for Dr Ryan, with Labor polling 20 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent.

While Mr Frydenberg faced a similar challenge from an independent at the last election, the poll shows he would need a 3 per cent swing toward him in the final week of the campaign to retain the seat this time around.

The contest is tighter in Goldstein, with Mr Wilson trailing the former ABC reporter and Climate 200 candidate Zoe Daniels 52-48 per cent.

It is a different story in Sydney, however, with Liberal MP Dave Sharma leading the teal candidate Allegra Spender 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis in the seat of Wentworth – an electorate once held by Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose recent advocacy for independents has prompted calls for his expulsion from the party.

Moderate Liberal Trent Zimmerman is also predicted to hold on in the seat of North Sydney, with Labor polling ahead of the independent candidate Kylea Tink, giving the incumbent a two-party-preferred lead of 53-47 against Labor.

In the neighbouring seat of Mackellar, which Liberal MP Jason Falinski holds on a margin of 13 per cent, a significant swing is being recorded against the Coalition. However, the polls show Mr Falinski holding on with a two-party-preferred lead of 53-47.

Scott Morrison and former Liberal prime minister John Howard have warned disaffected moderate Liberal voters against embracing what they called “fake” independents in Liberal-held seats, with Mr Morrison describing a hung parliament as a “carnival of chaos”.

The Climate 200 group, which has supplanted the “Voices Of” movement as the major benefactor of an alliance of like-minded independents campaigning on stronger climate change action and a federal corruption watchdog, has 19 candidates it claims to be sponsoring.

It claims to be not be a political party.

EXCLUSIVE: YouGov results for all 151 lower house seats — the most comprehensive poll ever conducted in Australia — in The Australian online tonight