Federal Election 2022: Could Albanese’s Covid-forced absence be the tonic Labor needs?

Anthony Albanese (L) and Scott Morrison attend the first leaders' debate. Picture: Getty Images.

Normally the absence of a political leader for a week in the heat of a campaign would be disastrous. But these are strange times, and this is an even stranger election.

The question must be asked: will Albanese’s absence from week three be the tonic Labor needs to get its campaign back on the rails?

It would be unusual for a sporting team to declare their chances of winning enhanced with their captain on the unavailable list. But Albanese’s first week in the campaign was disastrous and while his second improved, he appears jittery and uncertain, like a batter at the crease who has played and missed so often that he’s forgotten where his off stump is.

Seasoned journalists furrow their brows and tut-tut whenever politics is portrayed through the prism of competitive sports. It trivialises political discourse, they argue, renders critical issues and events to the minutiae of a sporting contest. That’s why I like to do it.

Besides there are marked circumstances in political contests that lend themselves to sporting metaphors. There is no doubt Anthony Albanese has been out of form. He could do with a pedestrian medium pacer dropping one short, allowing the Labor leader to whack it away and feel the ball in the middle of the bat.

That moment came with the announcement of the China-Solomon security pact, providing the prospect of a looming Chinese military presence in the Solomon Islands, just 1750 kilometres from Cairns. There are grave fears the PRC will establish a naval base in the South Pacific and those fears are shared in the US State Department.

The signs that Albanese’s first full day in quarantine might lead to the rest of the team stepping up are not promising with the discovery of a comment written by Labor deputy, Richard Marles that Australia has “no right to expect a set of exclusive relationships from its South Pacific neighbours.”

The Australian revealed on Friday that in a mini-book, Tides That Bind: Australia in the Pacific, published last August, Marles warned that “basing our actions in the Pacific on an attempt to strategically deny China would be a historic mistake’’.

Richard Marles at the Pacific Islands Forum in 2012. .

Talk about your short stuff outside the off stump.

The Coalition had fumbled its response to the announcement of the China-Solomons security pact. Prime Minister Morrison PM categorically ruled out the establishment of Chinese military bases in the Solomons while Defence Minister Peter Dutton was not so sure, saying that China was not playing by the rules.

I doubt any serious analyst would share the Prime Minister’s optimism.

When asked on Sky News if soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army would be seen in number on the Solomons, Minister Dutton replied, “You can expect the Chinese to do all they can now that they’ve got this agreement signed.”

Albanese in his sometimes-addled language landed a blow at the leader’s debate on Wednesday night. He finally had that short ball to put away. He may not have found the middle of the bat, but the government had served up the opportunity to get Albanese off the mark.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hands with Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Damukana Sogavare. Picture: Getty Images.

Casting the Minister for the Pacific, Zed Seselja as “a junior burger” when the Minister was sent to Honiara to discuss the security deal with Prime Minister Mannaseh Sogavare was a withering line.

Retired RAN Admiral Chris Barrie said the Solomon Islands turning to China after 15 years of Australian assistance constituted, “a failure of Australian government policy.”

Barrie was speaking at a climate change forum in Sydney. Climate change is an existential threat among small South Pacific nations.

“We have to step up and be a good friend to countries in the Pacific like the Solomon Islands. That means a change in climate policy because they look at what we’re doing to climate change and say where are you when we’re facing the loss of our country.”

Now might not be a good time to recall the hot mic episode in September 2015 where Peter Dutton, the then Minister for Immigration, quipped at the plight of South Pacific nations, “Time doesn’t mean anything when you’re about to have water lapping at your door.”

Scott Morrison as Social Services Minister and then PM Tony Abbott were present for the gag with Morrison pointing out the boom microphone hovering above the trio. Peter Dutton apologised for his remarks afterwards.

But we are getting into the weeds here. The issue is, as Dutton said on Friday, much bigger than that. We face an economic and military superpower moving ever closer to our doorstep. PRC money can buy political support in Honiara and pretty much anywhere else in the South Pacific. Australian diplomacy and aid will only get us so far. One man’s good friend is another man’s mug to be taken to the cleaners.

Votes may not be won or lost in foreign policy but the question of competency in government is running strongly in this campaign. Labor claims everyone from the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Marise Payne have failed and they may have had a point.

But the comments from Richard Marles which, let’s face it, are appeasement by another name have shifted the spotlight. Questions of competence of this government have been flipped to real evidence of ineptitude from the opposition.

There are other domestic issues at play, namely how Australian Chinese voters might see their ethnicity used as a political football. Both parties will need to tread carefully and speak clearly. Swing seats in Melbourne’s east and Sydney’s west are in play.

The news that Albanese had to spend a week on the pine provided an opportunity for Labor’s leadership team to get amongst the runs. Early doors, the Labor faithful will be counting down the days until Albanese can join the run-on team.