End is in sight for the Covid pandemic: experts

Australian experts say the WHO’s pronouncement that ‘the end is in sight’ for the Covid-19 pandemic brings our country another step closer to managing the disease.

World Health Organisation director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Picture: AFP

Australian experts say the World Health Organisation’s pronouncement that “the end is in sight” for the Covid-19 pandemic brings our country another step closer to managing the disease in a similar way to influenza but warn that hospital capacity will need to be further bolstered to cope with simultaneous winter respiratory virus waves.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged the world to step up and “seize this opportunity” to end the pandemic after weekly reported deaths dropped worldwide to the lowest level since March 2020.

“We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic,” Dr Ghebreyesus said in Geneva.

“We are not there yet, but the end is in sight.

“If we don’t take this opportunity, we run the risk of more variants, more deaths, more disruption, and more uncertainty.”

According to WHO’s latest epidemiological report on Covid-19, the number of reported cases fell 28 per cent to 3.1 million during the week ending September 11, following a 12 per cent drop a week earlier. The agency said numbers might be skewed by the fact many countries had cut back on testing and might be detecting only a fraction of cases.

In Australia, the nationwide BA.5 Omicron rate continues to decline, although deaths were at record levels in August. Health experts say it is inevitable isolation periods will eventually be abolished and the WHO declaration will bolster the case to move in that direction. “I think it’s just a bit of consolidation of the view many of us have that we are further along this transition from pandemic response to endemic,” said Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett.

“It doesn’t mean we’re out of Covid, but it means we can hopefully look forward to a period of longer intervals between surges, and that with surges, we can work with that individually and don’t need have to have the crisis response we’ve had in the past.

“That’s actually true for influenza as well – we are always on standby for pandemic influenza. And we have now shifted to that sort of level of risk with Covid.”

Australian National University microbiologist and infectious diseases physician Peter Collignon - criticised for declaring the worst of Covid-19 over in Australia in August - said the WHO’s pronouncement had bolstered his position. “I will feel more con­fident about it in February next year after I see what happens in the US, Canada and Europe, but I think the large waves are very likely to be over,” he said.

“My presumption is we’ll only get one major wave a year. And it won’t be anywhere near as big as we had – it’ll be predominantly in winter. Therefore, we need to treat Covid-19 like we would influenza, which means if you’re sick, stay away from work. We need a culture shift that says it’s not OK to soldier on if you’re unwell and the means of supporting people to do that. And if you’re more vulnerable, wear a mask, spend time outside more than inside … all those sorts of things.”

The Australian experts’ response to the WHO comments come as the Lancet’s Covid-19 Commission said governments had “showed themselves untrustworthy and ineffective” during the pandemic, leading to several million deaths and a “massive global failure” at multiple levels. It pointed to rich nations hoarding vaccine doses and failing to fund global response efforts, and irresponsible mess­aging from politicians such as former US president Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro that minimised the virus’s risks.

The commission also urged the scientific community to intensify its search for the origins of the virus that causes Covid-19.