Drought slows gas emissions as herds and flocks shrink

Cuts to cattle and sheep numbers and fewer crops as a result of drought paused gas emissions growth in the June quarter.

A sheep and grain farm, northwest of Dubbo in central NSW. Picture: Dylan Robinson

A slump in agricultural production due to drought has allowed the Morrison government to claim a pause in emissions growth for the June quarter and a small year-on-year decline.

Cuts to cattle and sheep numbers and fewer crops effectively offset increased emissions from industry and a still growing liquefied natural gas export sector.

Emissions from electricity production continued to fall, as did emissions on a per capita and per unit of economic activity basis.

The latest figures show that for the June quarter, Australia’s emissions were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis, but up by 0.3 per cent in trend terms.

Emissions for the year to June are estimated to be 532 tonnes, a fall of 0.1 per cent over the previous year.

A revision of historic figures ­included in the latest data shows that emissions are lower than when the Coalition came to government and are at their lowest level since 2015-16.

The most recent fall in emissions has come at a heavy cost to farmers. The quarterly update from the federal Department of Environment said drought conditions had impacted the cattle and sheep industries due to poor grazing conditions and the high cost and availability of grain.

“The lack of feed available has led to elevated levels of turn-off of both sheep and cattle, resulting in a contraction in the … national herd and flock”, the report says.

Floods in Queensland in early 2019 also led to a loss of cattle.

“Drier than average seasonal conditions during the planting window and reduced supplies of ­irrigation water have reduced the cotton harvest by almost 50 per cent. In NSW the area of rice planted declined by close to 90 per cent in 2018-19 and production is estimated to have dec­lined to 59,000 tonnes,” the quarterly ­report says.

The forecast volume of farm production for 2019-20 is similar to levels last recorded during the Millennium Drought. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture were down 5.9 per cent equal to a fall of 4.2 million tonnes.

The other big area of emissions savings was electricity, which fell 1.2 per cent or 2.1 Mt. During the September quarter 2019, emissions in the National Electricity Market fell to their lowest level since records began in 2001.

According to the Environment Department report, Australia’s emissions for the year to June have declined 15.2 per cent since the peak in the year to June 2007 and were 0.8 per cent below emissions in 2000 and 12.9 per cent below emissions in 2005.

In the year to June emissions per capita and the emission intensity of the economy were at their lowest levels in 29 years.

Emissions per capita in the year to June were lower than 1990 by 40.9 per cent, while the emission intensity of the economy was 62.9 per cent lower than in 1990.

Emissions related to LNG production increased by 22.3 per cent, or 7.8 Mt CO2 in 2018-19.

LNG exports are estimated to be worth $49.8bn in 2018-19 and have the potential to reduce global emissions by up to 159 Mt, or up to 29.9 per cent of Australia’s total annual emissions.