Warning of Beijing ‘grey zone’ threat in Australian waters

China is set to send flotillas of armed, unmarked ships into Australian waters in a bid to bully the nation into bowing to its will.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. Picture: AFP

China is on the verge of launching a “grey zone” war against Australia that would see flotillas of armed, unmarked and unsanctioned militia ships deployed on incursions through Australian waters in a bid to bully the nation into bowing to Beijing’s will.

The stark warning comes from Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, as the heads of the world’s leading democracies gather for a G7 summit widely anticipated to address China’s growing hostility and the risk of a global conflict involving the communist regime.

Dr Wu said Taiwan had been “in the frontline” against Chinese misinformation, economic coercion and military brinkmanship for decades, and urged “like-minded democracies” to form a united front against Beijing aggression.

“China is preparing for war and we all need to be ready for that,” Dr Wu told The Weekend Australian. “The new phenomenon we are seeing is part of what I would describe as China’s ‘grey zone’ operations, where it sends in its maritime militia – large fishing boats armed, operated and following the orders of China’s navy – to harass and intimidate their perceived enemies.

“This is something Australia hasn’t experienced yet – but it is coming.”

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. Picture: AFP

Known as China’s “little blue men”, Dr Wu said the maritime militia allowed Beijing to operate in a “grey zone” outside conventional warfare and deploy “threatening” armed forces to foreign territory without it being considered a formal act of war as the fleet comprised civilian vessels and its operations were not formally sanctioned by the regime.

Officially, Beijing denies the “so-called militia” even exists, but Western security analysts believe it forms an integral part of the country’s military strategy and it made headlines in March when more than 220 Chinese fishing vessels converged on Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea.

The Philippines, which has control of the reef as part of its Spratly Island chain, complained to Beijing about “the swarming and threatening presence” of the ships in its exclusive economic zone, and demanded they depart.

Beijing, which maintains the reef is part of its domain, said the ships posed no threat, were not part of a militia and were simply harbouring from rough seas.

While the tactic had so far been confined to the South China Sea, Dr Wu said China’s aspirations ultimately extended beyond the hotly contested region and into Australia’s sphere of influence. “We need to be aware of China’s intention and motivation,” he said. “China is trying to expand itself beyond the first island chains, which include Taiwan, into the wider Pacific.

A Chinese boat sails behind the Chinese flag near Dandong, in China's northeast Liaoning province. Picture: AFP

“We know that when China re-established diplomatic relations with the Solomon Islands (in 2019), it did so for strategic military purposes – and this is something we need to pay close attention to … this is a situation that is dangerous for all of us.

“If you look at the geographic situation of the Solomons Islands, they are right at the doorstop of Australia. China has taken an interest in the Solomon Islands because of that position … as part of its military strategic objectives.”

Dr Wu’s comments come in the midst of heightened tensions between Taiwan and China, which claims the democratic island republic of more than 23 million is also part of its sovereign territory. “War is real a possibility but that would be a disaster – not only for Taiwan, but for the rest of the world,” he said. “While we have been pursuing a policy of not provoking China, at the same time we are determined to stand firm and defend our freedom.

“It’s at the point where we need the international community and like-minded democracies to provide assistance – even orally – and encourage Taiwan to defend itself and continue to stand against China’s expansionism.

“I have visited the War Memorial (in Canberra) and I was moved by the Australian sacrifices made for the cause of freedom and democracy and solidarity with its allies.

“This does not mean that I am asking Australia to fight Taiwan’s war … but if Australia ever needs Taiwan, Taiwan will be there.”

Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director Peter Jennings said Dr Wu’s concerns about Chinese “grey zone” incursions into Australian waters posed a real and credible threat.

“We’ve known for years now that there’s been a Chinese military interest in seeing if they couldn’t establish some type of base in the Pacific region,” he said.

“Given the sort of spread of Chinese interests in the region, that’s definitely going to start to encroach on Australian waters, probably starting around Papua New Guinea.”

He said Australia’s leaders needed to prepare to combat any “grey zone” operations in our waters, “including a robust response directly at sea”, as well as through diplomatic channels.