US is on track to sell Virginia-class subs to Australia: AUKUS supporter Joe Courtney

US Congressman and leading AUKUS supporter Joe Courtney, has played down the prospect of the US backtracking from its commitment to sell Australia nuclear-powered submarines.

Virginia-class attack submarine Montana (SSN 794) conducts sea trials in the Atlantic. Picture: US Navy.

US congressman Joe Courtney says Washington is not pursuing an AUKUS “Plan B” whereby America would operate Virginia-class submarines out of WA instead of selling them to Canberra, warning this would see Australia effectively “conceding control over the undersea domain.”

The alternative “Plan B” proposal is contained in a paper prepared for members and committees of Congress by Ronald O’Rourke, a highly regarded specialist who has worked as a naval analyst for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress since 1984 when Ronald Reagan was still US President.

Mr Courtney, the co-chair of the bipartisan AUKUS working group, said that while Mr O’Rourke was seen as a “treasure” to the US Congress he was “not infallible” and his alternative plan would involve a “pretty radical” restructure of Australia’s military force.

Under the O’Rourke model – which his CRS paper labels a US/Australian “military division of labour” – up to eight extra Virginia-class submarines would be operated out of Australia by the US Navy and used for both US and Australian missions.

This in turn would free up billions of dollars for Canberra to spend on other capabilities apart from submarines such as “long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, loitering munitions, B-21 long-range bombers, or other strike aircraft.”

However, Mr Courtney said the O’Rourke plan would come with major downsides for Canberra. “I don’t think the AUKUS plan really contemplated Australia conceding control over the undersea domain,” he said. “That sort of jumps out.”

“Having a division of labour where the US pretty much operates the attack submarines exclusively pretty much puts Australia – at least eventually – out of the submarine business once the Collins-class are retired.”

Mr Courtney represents the second district of Connecticut which includes the town of Groton, known as the “submarine capital of the world.” Groton is home to General Dynamics Electric Boat – the major submarine contractor for the US Navy – as well as the primary US submarine east-coast base, Naval Submarine Base New London.  

He said he was unaware of any discussion in congress regarding the O’Rourke proposal, arguing that there had already been a “vigorous debate about the notion of selling Virginia-class submarines” to Australia.

“The US Navy, along with the help from the US embassy, really comprehensively overcame any second thoughts or doubts about doing that,” Mr Courtney said. “I think, by the end of the day, the AUKUS effort was very popular on both sides of the aisle.”

Key off-ramps are contained in the AUKUS submarine authorisations which passed the US congress in December, requiring the US President to certify the transfer of any future boats to Australia.

Under the arrangements, the President can veto a transfer if he believes it would degrade US undersea capabilities or if America was making insufficient investments in its own military capabilities.

But Mr Courtney provided an assurance that “the industrial base is going to grow.”

“There’s just no question,” he told The Australian. “If you look at the amount of money that Congress has appropriated already – going back to 2019 – I would argue this is evidence of the success of those investments.”

In order for the US industrial base to replace the submarines sold to Australia, it must increase the production of Virginia-class boats to a rate of 2.33 per year. Mr Courtney said that by the end of 2025 or 2026 America would be “closing fast in terms of (a) 2.0 Virginia production rate.”

“So I think that’s all evidence that, by the time 2032 rolls around and whenever the US President decides to make a decision on the certification, I think those off-ramps, those preconditions are going to be strongly dealt with.”