Upgrades for bases as $63bn era starts

A multi-billion-dollar period of more upgrades, purchasing, testing and training begins after Monday’s scheduled arrival of operational F-35s.

One of Australia's F-35A pilots, Edwin Borrman, prepares for his first JSF flight in the US. He is expected to be flying one of the two JSFs to arrive on Monday at Newcastle.

After years of thunder around the Joint Strike Fighter project — which will cost Australia an estimated $63 billion over three decades — there will be a day of “lightning’’, in a welcome way, for the planes’ supporters.

Today is intended to be the operational start of home basing for the eventual 72 Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II JSFs bought by the federal government for the Royal Australian Air Force.

It will be a private occasion for the defence community. But for the public there will be a fly-past about 9.50am above the Hunter coast of NSW by the first two of Australia’s F-35s to arrive at their future home, RAAF Williamtown at Newcastle, from a US base in Arizona. The new fighters will be accompanied in formation by two or three of the ageing F/A-18 A/B Classic Hornets which the JSFs will replace.

The main JSF bases will be Williamtown (56 F-35s eventually) and the Northern Territory’s RAAF Base Tindal (16 F-35s), about 340 kilometres southeast of Darwin. Tindal is scheduled to take delivery of its F-35A aircraft from early 2022. If Australia takes the option to increase JSF orders to 100, then the Amberley base, near Brisbane, may be sent F-35s too.

Necessary upgrades and facilities expansion at Williamtown and Tindal are part of the New Air Combat Capability Facilities Project that also includes work on forward operating bases at Townsville and Scherger (near Weipa) in Queensland; Darwin; and Curtin (near Derby), Learmonth (near Exmouth) and Pearce (near Perth) in Western Australia. Total spending is predicted to be about $1.5bn.

The project to build 3000 JSFs — for several nations in all but 75 per cent for the US air force (the A model), marines (B) and navy (C) — continues to be criticised for production delays, cost rises and parts shortages.

But Lockheed Martin says a recent go-ahead from the US JSF Program Office for the aircraft to undergo what is termed an initial operational test and evaluation “demonstrates the confidence our customers have in the maturity of the F-35’s design and performance.

“With more than 340 F-35s operating from 15 bases around the world … we are confident in the F-35 weapon systems’ operational performance, capability and suitability today and for decades to come,” the US aerospace giant says.

According to the government, by 2016, the F-35 parts program supported more than 2400 jobs in 15 local companies, and jobs are set to grow to 5000 by 2023.

Last week the Australian National Audit Office released a report on “introduction into service and sustainment planning’’ for the JSF which said the acquisition budget was about $15.5bn with a further $4.6bn for operating and support costs until 2024-25. That includes weapons, training and infrastructure but not sustainment, such as equipment and software upgrades and repairs. Defence estimates an average cost of $115.7 million for each aircraft alone, or $8.33bn for 72.

Defence has said sustainment costs for such complex purchases are usually two to 2½ times the cost of the acquisition. JSF lifetime sustainment costs were estimated at $43bn and further estimates would come after 2020, according to the Senate defence committee in 2016. Such estimates are problematic, especially given currency movements.

Following the arrival of the first two F-35s, Defence will begin its own initial test and evaluation program that it has scheduled to run through to December 2020, at which time it plans to have about 30 aircraft including an operational squadron of at least 12 JSF aircraft available.

The ANAO said effective implementation of Defence’s sustainments depended largely on how the US Defence Department managed sustainment through its F-35 global support solution (GSS), “which is still maturing”. Australia chose to be part of the program for efficiency reasons.

“Defence (as well as other participants) is planning to rely on the GSS for access to a global spares pool and supply chain; global repair networks; common information systems; engineering; fleet management; configuration management services; and training systems,’’ the auditors said last week.

“Defence is managing risks associated with the developmental nature of the JSF supporting systems as well as cost pressures related to establishing Australia as a regional maintenance and warehousing hub for JSF aircraft,” the ANAO said.

“Defence is constrained in its ability to effectively manage some risks, including access to JSF spare parts due to limited global supply. Not all of the costs associated with Australia becoming a regional hub for JSF aircraft maintenance and warehousing were known by Defence when the project was approved in 2014.

“This is adding cost pressures to the project. Defence does not expect to have a reliable estimate for whole-of-life sustainment costs for its JSF aircraft until after 2020,’’ the ANAO said.

“In June 2018, Defence informed its Air Worthiness Board that global spares shortages might result in Defence having insufficient spares available to meet operational requirements or to meet the required contracted rate of effort.’’

The Defence Department told the ANAO that it expected to achieve initial operating capability by December 2020, by when it would have taken delivery of 30-33 aircraft and established its own training. One operational squadron, with a minimum of 12 aircraft, would be “proficient in air combat, strike and offensive air support, and ready to deploy”.