‘Taiwan not our fight’: Keating

Former PM says Australia should stay out of any conflict between the US and China over Taiwan, likens new subs to ‘throwing toothpicks at a mountain’.

Former prime minister Paul Keating says Australia has no strategic interest in preserving the autonomy of Taiwan, and should stay out of any conflict between the United States and China over the disputed territory.

In an appearance at the National Press Club in Canberra, Mr Keating said China was “simply too big and too central to be ostracised”, and the US could no longer hope to be the “security guarantor in Asia”.

He also ridiculed the idea that Australia’s eight proposed nuclear submarines would have any impact in any conflict with China, likening their value to “throwing a handful of toothpicks at the mountain”.

Mr Keating said Australia should stay out of any conflict over Taiwan, arguing the ANZUS alliance would not require Australia to come to the aid of the US if it became involved in a conflict over the territory with China.

“Taiwan is not a vital Australian interest. We have no alliance with Taipei, none. There is no document you can find,” he said.

“We do not recognise it as a sovereign state, right?

“And under ANZUS, ANZUS commits us to consult in the event of an attack on US forces, but not by US forces.

“Which means Australia should not be drawn in my view into a military engagement over Taiwan, US sponsored or otherwise.”

Mr Keating said Australia was “at odds with our geography”, seeking security “from Asia” rather than “in Asia”.

He said China did not represent a threat to Australia. It wanted to ensure the security of “its front doorstep and front porch”.

“It doesn‘t want American naval forces influencing. It wants access out of its coast

into the deeper waters of the Mariana Trench in the Pacific. That‘s what it’s about fundamentally.

Mr Keating said the idea that the US could expect China to be a stakeholder in the US-led global system “would make a cat laugh”.

The US could also no longer expect to be the guarantor of security in Asia, given the fact that China’s economy was already 1.25 times larger than America’s and would soon be twice the size.

“The United States should be the guarantor and the leader of the West, it should in East Asia be the balancer and conciliator.

“In other words it is important to have American military power in East Asia to deal with any pushiness by other states including China, as a balancing and conciliating power.”

Mr Keating has had a long association with China since his time as prime minister, serving as chair of the China Development Bank advisory council for more than a decade.

He told the ABC’s Kerry O’Brien in 2016 that the role gave him access to the country’s elite, enabling him to see the country “from the inside out”.

“I meet the head of the National Development Commission, which effectively runs the whole development process, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Vice Premier who runs the economy, mostly the Premier and occasionally the President,” he said.