Report warns of AUKUS threat to US sub plans as Anthony Albanese leaves Washington

A report to US congress has warned the AUKUS deal will punch a two decade-long hole in the country’s already stretched nuclear submarine plans, threatening America’s military deterrence.

The Virginia-class attack submarine Montana (SSN 794) undergoes initial sea trials in February 2022. Picture: US Navy

The US congress has been warned that the AUKUS deal will punch a two decade-long hole in the country’s already-stretched nuclear submarine plans, threatening America’s military deterrence.

A Congressional Budget ­Office report, published as ­Anthony Albanese departed the US, warns the Virginia-class boats that Australia wants to buy will not be guaranteed to support the US in any conflict, noting Australia’s refusal to pledge to join the US in a war with China over Taiwan.

The CBO, created to help congress make effective policy, said the AUKUS plan had ­imposed “major uncertainty” over the US submarine plans.

It warns the US Navy’s latest shipbuilding blueprint, which doesn’t yet factor in the boats to be sold to Australia, would ­require a 31-40 per cent budget boost.

The report comes amid US concerns over the Albanese government’s push to stabilise ties with Beijing, with President Joe Biden publicly warning the Prime Minister ahead of his trip to Beijing about trusting Xi Jinping’s word.

Anthony Albanese walks with US President Joe Biden to the White House’s Oval office. Picture: AFP

Mr Albanese spent much of his time in Washington this week trying to convince senior congressional figures and government officials that AUKUS would not place a burden on the US. But the CBO report is likely to inject doubt in the minds of US ­decision-makers, noting that US attack submarine numbers will fall by the mid-2030s to accommodate the transfer of subs to Australia, leaving a shortfall in its planned inventory until at least 2053.

The report says the strong Australia-US alliance could offset the loss of the submarines to the US fleet, and that the positioning of the boats in the Western Pacific could allow them to respond more quickly to a conflict with China over Taiwan.

But it notes: “Australia would control its own submarines, and their participation in any particular conflict would not be guaranteed.

“In fact, in March 2020, the Australian defence minister stated that his country did not promise to support the United States in the event of a conflict involving Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China.”

The report warns the nuclear submarine industrial base is “struggling to meet the navy’s ­demand for submarines”, and production needs to rise from 1.5 boats a year to as many as 2.6 to absorb the boats lost to Australia.

Depending on the number and age of the subs provided to Australia, the US would have three to five fewer subs than it would otherwise have between 2033 and 2053.

Strategic Analysis Australia ­director Michael Shoebridge said the scale of the problem made Australia’s promised US$3bn to support the US submarine industrial base look like a “rounding error”.

The CBO report’s key message to congress was the US shipbuilding plan was already “unaffordable”, he said.

“This means the US is under increasing pressure to meet its own core needs for submarines,” Mr Shoebridge said. “And if it can’t meet its own core needs it will be unable to help Australia achieve our AUKUS submarine goals. It has to meet its own needs first.”

The 7800-ton Virginia-class submarine Montana at Newport News Shipbuilding ahead of final testing and crew certification. Picture: Matt Hildreth / HI

Key bills to enable the AUKUS pact are before congress, but have been delayed by weeks of chaos as the House of Representatives languished without a Speaker.

The bills would allow the sharing of US technology to Australia and the UK, and are vital to AUKUS’s success.

Mr Albanese told US officials Australia was not “looking for a free ride”.

“Australians always pay our way. We pull our weight. We do our part. We always have. We ­always will,” he told the US State Department on Thursday.

“The AUKUS bills before congress represent a multi-billion dollar boost to America’s industrial base – and a game-changing manufacturing opportunity for Australian workers.”

Mr Albanese will travel to China next Saturday to reset Australia’s relationship with its biggest trading partner, amid heightened tensions between the US and Beijing.

Asked by The Weekend Australian if Australia could trust China, Mr Biden said: “Trust but verify.”