Military spending boost a likely demand from Trump, say defence experts
The new Trump administration will pressure Australia to lift defence spending and may renegotiate the AUKUS deal to secure more favourable terms for the US, analysts say.
An incoming Trump administration will pile pressure on the Albanese government to boost defence spending and could try and renegotiate the AUKUS deal to secure more favourable terms for the US, analysts say.
National security experts said Donald Trump would look to strengthen defence ties with Australia, and the nations’ nuclear submarine partnership was a “Trumpian”-style deal that was unlikely to come under threat from the returning president.
But they warned the president-elect’s deal-making instincts and demands that allies pay more for US protection might force Australia to do more “heavy lifting” on defence.
United States Studies Centre chief Mike Green said the Trump 2.0 administration would look to ramp up deployments of American weapons and personnel to Australia as part of a bipartisan US plan for a more distributed military posture in Asia.
“They’re going to come in on day one and want to accelerate co-operation with Australia on defence,” Dr Green said.
“If there is an issue, frankly, it’s that the (Australian) government is going to come under pressure to spend more on defence.”
Australia’s military spending is sitting at 1.99 per cent of GDP – just under the 2 per cent NATO benchmark which Mr Trump has flagged he wants to increase to 3 per cent. At the same time, the ADF is facing a capability crisis, with ageing submarines and too few warships, missiles and drones to make a difference in a future conflict with China.
Former defence official Peter Jennings said Mr Trump would “absolutely” demand Australia spend more on its own defence.
“I think it’s a great shame that we have to have Donald Trump elected in order for us to think more seriously about our own security,” Mr Jennings said.
“But if Trump is more demanding of what Australia needs to do, then that’s a good thing.”
While there is deep support for the AUKUS partnership in the US, including among Republicans, Australian Institute of International Affairs chief executive Bryce Wakefield said Mr Trump might try to secure a better deal for the US.
“The question for him would be, is Australia paying enough for the service that he would see the United States as providing,” Dr Wakefield said. “That might be something that may come down to a sort of period of haggling, but the general (AUKUS) proposition actually suits the Trump administration very well.”
Strategic Analysis Australia director Michael Shoebridge said the Biden administration had given Australia a free pass “on our slow-rolling implementation of AUKUS”.
“Trump will notice that we’re pretending we can have conventional military and nuclear subs while we’re spending a shade under 2 per cent of GDP on defence,” he said.
“And he’ll want to see us doing some heavy lifting – like building actual bases and dry docks – if we expect him to give up subs that the US Navy has too few of themselves.
“Right now on AUKUS, Australia is ‘All hat no ranch’. With Trump in the White House, that could get uncomfortable and expensive.”
Biden lauds AUKUS as key achievement
In his final foreign policy speech, Joe Biden declared the US is ‘winning the worldwide competition’, citing the AUKUS defence pact as a pivotal achievement in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Not quite as bad as Gough but it’s close
The Albanese government provides no rationale or narrative for its disconnected actions. Everything is spin. We’ve seldom seen a government this poor in such critical fields at such a dangerous time.