Donald Trump’s Pentagon warns Anthony Albanese that he is not spending enough on defence and AUKUS
Pentagon officials warn Australia must lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP to meet AUKUS commitments and defend itself adequately.
The Pentagon says Australia will be unable to adequately defend itself and deliver on its AUKUS commitments unless it massively lifts its defence budget, and argues 3.5 per cent of GDP is now the “new global standard”, in the Trump administration’s strongest warning yet to Anthony Albanese.
The warning sets up a collision with the Labor government, which has repeatedly rebuffed calls from Washington to lift its defence spending.
It also provides an insight into how seriously this issue is viewed by the US and the sorts of conclusions that may be drawn in the review of the landmark AUKUS pact being led by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby.
The comments from the US Department of Defence come as the Prime Minister prepares for a gruelling schedule of international trips over the next three months, including a September visit to the UN General Assembly in New York, as he continues to pursue an in-person meeting with Donald Trump.
In a briefing provided to The Australian on Thursday local time, the Pentagon flagged its concerns that Australia would not be able to both modernise the ADF and achieve its objectives under the AUKUS framework with defence spending pegged to its current trajectory.
Under the AUKUS plan, Washington will transfer to Australia at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the 2030s – so long as the President is confident it will not degrade America’s own “undersea capabilities” and is consistent with US national security interests.
However, senior US defence figures appear increasingly concerned that a failure by Australia to spend more on defence could have a bearing on the nation’s ability to operate as an effective ally in deterring a more aggressive Beijing. “For Australia in particular, it is vitally important that they are able to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP,” a US Defence official told The Australian.
“That will allow them to generate and field the kind of forces required not just to defend themselves but work together closely with us to maintain deterrence in the region.
“It is not an abstraction. This is a concrete objective. AUKUS is an expensive thing. Increasing defence spending is going to be vitally important for Australia to achieve its stated objectives under AUKUS while also modernising the rest of the ADF. At a certain point, it’s just maths. They need to spend more on defence.
“I think we can say with confidence that if Australia does not raise defence spending it is going to struggle to field the forces required to defend Australia but also to make good on its commitments to others.
“But we are hopeful that Australia will be able to lean in and make these decisions – 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence spending; that is the new global standard.”
Jim Chalmers’ most recent budget revealed Australian defence spending would rise to nearly $59bn, or 2.04 per cent of GDP, this financial year, but only 32 per cent of the money is going towards the acquisition of new weapons and equipment.
The outcome is in line with the government’s plan to lift defence spending by $50.3bn over the next decade, but the bulk of the increases are back-ended and don’t start kicking in before 2028-29.
US Studies Centre chief executive Michael Green told The Australian defence spending didn’t increase “until the second five year increment” and expected that, as part of the AUKUS review, “there’ll be discussions about (it)”.
Dr Green, who served on the staff of the National Security Council at the White House from 2001 to 2005, said the “question will likely come up: do we (Australia) have adequate deterrence in the near term. And I expect the US position will be, ‘not really’.”
Chinese ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian last month warned Mr Albanese that increasing military spending would only impose a “heavy fiscal burden” on the country as he responded to Washington’s push for Canberra to ramp up defence spending. .
“Some countries are ailing yet demand their ‘allies and partners’ foot the bill for medicine, which seems to be an almost laughable notion,” he said. “Whether to spend on arms purchases, handouts to the ‘hegemon’, or pooling funds for its sake, or to heed their own people’s calls for economic development, is now a difficult choice for these ‘allies and partners’.”
After NATO countries in June committed to increasing defence spending to a total 5 per cent of GDP, the Albanese government noted that 1.5 per cent of the pledge was allocated to upgrading roads, bridges, ports and airfields.
The Prime Minister is understood to be resistant to simply appearing to lift Australia’s defence spending by adding associated infrastructure like roads to total expenditure and has talked up Australia’s funnelling of more than $US1bn to the American submarine industrial base as part of the AUKUS deal.
In response to reports that Mr Colby had sought to ram the Australians and Japanese into making commitments to support the US in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan, Pentagon officials told The Australian on Thursday this was “never accurate”.
They instead suggested the approach was more nuanced, acknowledging that there was a pressing need to discuss contingency planning with key US partners – including Australia – to ensure both nations knew what to expect across different scenarios.
“In any alliance, I think it’s really important for both sides to have a clear sense of what they can expect from the other across a range of contingencies,” a US Defence official said. “That’s exactly the sort of thing that you would expect allies to do.”
Mr Albanese is hoping to hold his first in person meeting with Mr Trump when he travels to New York in September for the UN General Assembly. In addition to hopes of securing a Washington DC visit, there is rising speculation the Quad leaders’ meeting – which was expected to be held in India – could instead be shifted to the US to coincide with the UN meeting.
While Mr Albanese has not publicly announced a timeline for his government to formally recognise Palestine as a state, he is expected to follow the lead of France, Canada and Britain and finalise the major change in Australia’s long-held Middle East policy ahead of his New York trip.
He is also likely to add a London leg to the trip to visit British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. On top of this, Mr Albanese is preparing to travel to the Pacific Islands Forum in Solomon Islands next month, followed by the East Asia Summit in Malaysia, APEC summit in South Korea, G20 summit in South Africa, and the UN Climate Change COP30 summit in Brazil if Australia wins its bid to co-host next year’s conference.
This weekend, Mr Albanese will travel across the ditch for talks with New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at their annual leaders’ meeting.
Both Mr Albanese and Mr Luxon were recently treated to red carpet treatment by Chinese President Xi Jinping on visits to Beijing.
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