Defence must act on Peter Dutton’s new doctrine

Defence Minister Peter Dutton at Exercise Talisman Sabre 2021 in Queensland in July.

Defence Minister Peter Dutton has, without quite saying so, given us a new defence doctrine. For the first time, we are going to embrace asymmetric warfare as the offensive party rather than the defensive party. It’s a revolution.

Submarines and frigates and tanks and armoured vehicles are all very well – but Australia is now moving decisively into the era when missiles and drones count much more.

Australia, says Dutton, will increasingly invest in “long-range strike weapons, offensive and defensive cyber, and area denial systems”, as well as “capabilities which can be produced in bulk, more quickly and cheaply, and where their loss would be more tolerable, without significantly impacting our force posture”.

Dutton wants cheap weapons that can “swarm” an enemy. And in case we didn’t get the point, he is explicit: “I am referring to ­assets like autonomous craft and remotely piloted drones.”

Dutton also speaks at some length about missiles and the government’s project to build missiles in Australia. He links this with Australia’s status as an ally included in the US National Technology and Industrial Base.

He calls on the Americans to give greater effect to Australia’s inclusion in its defence industry base. This is a slightly coded reference to asking for the transfer of intellectual property that would allow Australia to manufacture US-designed missiles in Australia, mainly for our own use but also as part of the US supply chain.

Dutton and Foreign Minister Marise Payne will shortly travel to the US for the 31st AUSMIN talks with their counterparts, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. This missile partnership will be one of the key topics.

Thus, one key audience for Dutton’s speech is not Australian at all – it is the American diplomatic and defence establishment.

Australia wants to partner with the US in drone and missile warfare, the kind of warfare that could impose heavy costs on Chinese aggression without putting at risk impossibly expensive allied platforms like ships and aircraft.

The other important audience for Dutton’s speech is the Australian Defence Department and the Australian military. The government has been wanting to move down this path for some time, but the Australian Defence Organisation is addicted to the sleepy, antique force structure Australia has had for decades.

This force structure is no longer relevant or fit for purpose.

Dutton’s speech is clear, strong and purposeful. But the $64m question remains: where’s the beef, Jack?

Dutton is right to identify drones as a key to modern warfare but Australia still does not own a single armed drone. He’s right to talk of the centrality of missiles, but our missile stocks are pitifully small. The question is: will the government follow through on the strong strategy that Dutton has outlined, and will it do so in a relevant timeframe, which for Defence would be like changing to warp speed through a Star Trek wormhole, compared with its normal horse and buggy pace.

The other striking element of Dutton’s speech is the blunt way he talks about China. Australia welcomes China’s rise, he says, and wants to work constructively with Beijing. He then goes on to condemn “the activities of certain nations in our region like China which … undermine the sovereignty of other nations”.

The onus, he says, is on Beijing to demonstrate that it will con­tribute to regional stability, not undermine it.

Australia called out “malicious cyber activities by China’s Ministry of State Security” and will continue to speak frankly, Dutton says. He declares: “We will not be cowed.”

That frank talk needs desperately to be backed up by the frank action that Dutton has eloquently foreshadowed.