Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell says the collapse of the Afghan government was ‘more immediate’ than he predicted

Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell says he was surprised at the speed of the Afghan government’s collapse to the Taliban.

Chief of the Australian Defence Force General Angus Campbell said the fall of the Afghan government had been accelerated by “some interesting force deployment choices”. Picture: AAP

The Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell says he was surprised at the speed of the Afghan government’s collapse to the Taliban, but didn’t know anyone who predicted it “other than in the glory of 20:20 hindsight”.

General Campbell said the “entrails” of Australia’s Afghanistan withdrawal would be examined, amid preparations for a senate inquiry into last month’s airlift, the provision of refugee visas to Afghan support staff, and the closure of Australia’s Kabul embassy.

But he told the Australian National University’s Crawford Leadership Forum that Australia managed to rescue 4100 people from the city – “way beyond the number it was initially anticipated that Australia would be lifting”.

General Campbell, who three months ago dismissed suggestions the Taliban would overrun the country, said the fall of the Afghan government had been accelerated by “some interesting force deployment choices”, and the departure of its President Ashraf Ghani.

“Collapse, accommodation, or Afghan government success were all possibilities,” he said.

“But, by the momentum of Taliban effort, the accommodation or the cascade collapse were more likely.”

The federal government shut Australia’s embassy in Kabul in late May amid intelligence suggesting the security situation in Kabul could deteriorate quickly.

“Now I wasn’t anticipating, as I’ve made public, that that collapse would be so immediate,” General Campbell said.

“But there (was) enough uncertainty about the security situation for a range of advice offered to government that gave them consideration with regard to whether that embassy should close – or not – or should temporarily close.”

General Campbell told a Senate estimates hearing in June that the end of the Afghanistan war was “very much going to be a negotiated settlement”.

He told the Crawford Leadership Forum on Monday: “I don‘t know of anyone who predicted, other than in the glory of 20:20 hindsight, how quickly it would occur.”

With Australia and the United States now firmly focused on the Indo-Pacific, both countries hope the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – made up of Australia, the US, Japan and India – will help counter Chinese threats to the regional order.

But General Campbell said the Quad was still in its early days, and needed to demonstrate its value to regional neighbours.

“People in our region are right to ask: ‘What is this thing called the Quad and how is it lifting, improving and adding to security, community and a sense of stability?’

“That’s where I think we need to focus, not to be too prescriptive, let it evolve,” he said.

General Campbell was also quizzed at the forum on the pace of the nation’s military modernisation, amid recognition that “strategic warning time” of a major conflict has been compressed.

He said Defence was accelerating the development of key capabilities, such as the creation of a national guided weapons industry, and using start-up methods to identify “small, simple, cheap solutions”.

But he warned: “There is no one day where the force is completely ready, and no one threat against which we must be ready singularly.”