The government’s decision to accelerate just $1bn worth of defence spending in the federal budget’s forward estimates without also boosting its long-term spending plans reveals much about the government’s true priorities.
It shows that while the government talks big about threats, risks and a more hostile world, it refuses to back it up with serious increases to defence spending, choosing to give preference to other needy portfolios rather than Defence.
This gives the Coalition fertile ground in the coming election campaign to claim that Labor is weak on national security and that it talks a big game while carrying a small stick.
But, of course, this assumes Peter Dutton will make good on his promise to spend “much more” on defence. We are still waiting to find out what that actually means and whether the Coalition is more willing than Labor to take hard and possibly unpopular decisions to boost defence spending.
Under Labor’s new Defence budget, it will bring forward $1bn of the $10.6bn previously announced budget increase over the four-year forward estimates to “accelerate” capability. It says the earlier funding will be used to prepare for British and US nuclear submarine rotations from Perth’s HMAS Stirling naval base and speed up creation of a domestic guided weapons industry.
But this is not new money, and Labor has not changed its existing plan to spend an extra $50bn over the decade to lift defence spending from its current 2 per cent of GDP to 2.3 per cent by 2033.
Defence Minister Richard Marles says this is the most significant peacetime increase in defence spending since the Second World War but it still falls well short of what most defence experts believe is necessary to respond to a more dangerous world.
Former defence minister Kim Beazley, former Defence Department secretary Dennis Richardson, co-author of the 2023 Defence Strategic Review Peter Dean and 2009 defence white paper author Mike Pezzullo are among those who believe defence spending must be lifted to 3 per cent of GDP to respond to a more dangerous world and to fund major acquisitions such as the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines.
The Trump administration is also pushing Australia to spend more on its defence, with Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for a senior Pentagon post, recently calling for Australia to lift annual defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.
The government’s credibility problem on defence arises from the yawning gap between its grave assessment of the strategic threat facing Australia and its willingness to respond with substantial funding increases.
Marles and various defence reviews and strategies since 2023 have described Australia as facing the “most complex and challenging strategic environment since the Second World War”.
Since then, the world has become an even more dangerous place. Donald Trump’s attempts to end the Ukraine war have led to an appeasement of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and fears of an unequal peace deal being imposed on Ukraine.
This has sparked panic among European nations, with many committing to sharply increased defence spending.
The Middle East remains a cauldron of tension with the war in Gaza at a tense impasse, and US-led attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen raising the prospect of a direct clash between the US and the Houthis’ main backer, Iran.
Meanwhile, China has stepped up its military brinkmanship announcing yet another massive increase in defence spending while dispatching warships to circle Australia in a show of force that only served to highlight our reliance on Virgin Australia to detect the Chinese navy.
With the transactional Trump regime making it clear that allies have to shoulder more of their defence burden, it is unlikely that Labor’s slow road to lift defence spending from 2 to 2.3 per cent by 2033 will be welcomed in Washington. The disappointing lack of action on defence spending in this budget has all but guaranteed national security will feature prominently in the coming election campaign.
More Coverage
Doubts over future of $1bn Ghost Bat drone
Concerns are mounting over the future of Australia’s $1bn Ghost Bat drone program as it approaches the end of its funding.
Two women charged after ‘bomb hoax’ linked to airshow
Victoria Police charged two women after a ‘suspicious package’ was left at a Geelong office linked to the Avalon Airshow, prompting a response from the bomb squad.
The Albanese government will go to the polls having failed to act on its own dire warnings about the nation facing the most “complex and challenging” strategic environment since the Second World War.