Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead warns on nuclear submarine deadline

Australia may not have an operational nuclear submarine until after 2040, the Nuclear Submarine Taskforce head has conceded.

The Virginia-class attack submarine USS California. The government is likely to opt for either a Virginia-class or British Astute boat, but does not rule out the possibility of a British submarine with a US combat system.

Australia may not have an operational nuclear submarine until after 2040 despite assurances one would be “in the water” by the end of the next decade, the head of the government’s Nuclear Submarine Taskforce has conceded.

Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, who is leading an 18-month-long study to put the government’s nuclear submarine pledge into action, said he was working to achieve “early delivery” of the first boat, with a “worst-case scenario” of just one completed by 2040. “We have provided advice that a submarine would be delivered to the commonwealth and in the water by the next decade,” he told a Defence estimates hearing on Wednesday.

But Vice Admiral Mead agreed that “in the water” did not mean operational, and the submarine would then have to undertake a commissioning process that could take years.

“That would need to be worked through,” Vice Admiral Mead said, when quizzed on the likely commissioning timeline by Labor Senator Tim Ayres.

Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead.

Defence officials also played down the likelihood of Australia leasing US or British nuclear boats to guard against a “capability gap” before Australia’s new submarines became available.

Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty said his department had not provided the government with any advice on an interim submarine capability beyond upcoming “life-of-type extensions” to the nation’s Collins-class boats.

“The department is looking to identify further additional non-submarine capabilities to provide us with a range of capabilities, including long-range strike, offensive cyber – these things are con­tributing to increasing leth­ality of the ADF,” Mr Moriarty said.

Acknowledging the huge risk inherent in the nuclear submarine program, Mr Moriarty said it was “very unlikely” that Australia would get a hybrid US-British nuclear submarine design.

Vice Admiral Mead said Australia intended to select a “mature design” for its future submarine, to be built under the AUKUS partnership. “All options are on the table but the plan is that the design is mature at the start of the build,” he told a Defence estimates hearing in Canberra.

The assurance suggests the government will opt for either a US Virginia-class or British Astute boat, but does not rule out the possibility of a British submarine with a US combat system.

It follows the drawn-out process adopted for the French Attack-class boat, which had not progressed to detailed design stage in the five years between its 2016 selection and its cancellation last month.

The committee heard China already has 45 submarines including 12 nuclear boats, and will have an estimated 76 by 2035.

Greg Moriarty. Picture: Gary Ramage

Independent Senator Rex Patrick pointed out the ageing Collins boats were already at a disadvantage compared to submarines with “air independent propulsion”, which didn’t require them to come to periscope depth to “snort” as they ran their diesel engines.

But the Chief of the Navy, Vice Admiral Mike Noonan, said the Collins would also get new classified improvements in upcoming LOTE upgrades to ensure their continued effectiveness.

Vice Admiral Noonan said upgrades were planned that would have “a positive effect on that signature during the snorting process, (but) I don’t seek to go into those in this forum”.

Vice Admiral Noonan backed his assessment that the Collins could be upgraded beyond their 10-year life-extensions, keeping them running into the 2050s, although he said an assessment was yet to be made on the effects of metal fatigue on the Collins hulls, which could rule out an extension.

Defence officials also revealed the government had quietly dropped plans to build a promised large-hulled Pacific support vessel in Australia.

Senator Penny Wong said: “This is another Morrison government announcement not delivered, isn’t it?”

Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the fastest way of delivering the vessel was to build it offshore. “It is the government’s view that this vessel should be delivered and operational as soon as possible,” she said.