AUKUS purpose: Australia’s nuclear submarines deal explained
From the military capabilities of Australia’s nuclear submarine fleet to how they will be built and crewed, we get to the bottom of the AUKUS deal.
Australia’s AUKUS pact and its “optimal pathway” to deliver nuclear-powered submarines has been described as a new dawn for defence in this country. We take a deep dive into the details.
What is AUKUS?
AUKUS – an acronym of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States — is a Western security pact designed to supercharge Australia’s defence capability and enmesh our military industrial base with those of the US and UK. It is an evolution of the former Australia-US defence alliance and includes plans to build eight original nuclear-powered submarines, as well as acquire up to five used US ones.
Announced by surprise by former prime minister Scott Morrison in September 2021, it has been described as Australia‘s best-kept defence secret since World War II.
“The AUKUS agreement we confirm here in San Diego represents the biggest single investment in our defence capability in our history,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.
Nationals Leader David Littleproud has called AUKUS one of the “great legacies” that the Nationals and Liberals will leave. “This is one of the biggest strategic defence agreements … and the subs just form one part of it,” Mr Littleproud told Sky News Australia. “AUKUS is very much around the strategic defence of our nation for generations to come.”
How many nuclear submarines will Australia have?
Australia will get eight AUKUS-class submarines – based on a British design – that will be built in Adelaide, with the first to be completed by 2042. In the interim, Australia will buy three US-made Virginia-class subs with an option of two more, with the first arriving in 2033. But the sale still requires congressional approval. Up to five nuclear submarines – four US and one British – will begin rotational deployments to operate from Australia from 2027.
How much will Australia’s nuclear submarines cost?
Australia’s nuclear submarines will cost $268bn to $368bn out to the mid-2050, but the massive endeavour won’t begin to drive up defence spending for another four years.
Defence spending will have to rise by at least 0.15 per cent of GDP from 2026-27 to pay for the program, on top of the already-forecast Defence budget of about 2.2 per cent by the end of the decade.
The cost of the plan will hit the May budget, at $9bn over the forward estimates. This will be offset by $6bn that had been allocated to the now-cancelled Attack-class submarine program, and a further $3bn in savings from the wider Defence budget, to be detailed in the upcoming defence strategic review.
How many jobs will be created in Australia?
The Albanese government says 20,000 direct jobs will be created in Australia by the AUKUS pathway – with the bulk of the jobs in South Australia and Western Australia – to build the submarines and new infrastructure.
It will support 4000 to 5000 direct jobs in Adelaide, plus another 4000 workers to design and build the infrastructure. Another 3000 direct jobs are expected to be created in Western Australia.
Australian servicemen, engineers and others will embed with the US and British Royal Navy from as early as this year in nuclear submarines and maritime bases to learn how to operate and build the AUKUS boats. They require a crew of about 135 compared to only 48 for the Collins class. This is almost certainly not possible in the time frame required. The reality is that these submarines will be largely crewed by Americans for many years and a small but slowly growing contingent of Australians aboard.
Do Japan, China and North Korea have nuclear submarines?
North Korea has at least 80 diesel-powered submarines and is believed to be still years away from being able to develop a nuclear-powered one. However, in May last year North Korea fired what appeared to be submarine-launched ballistic missile off its eastern coast, the US and South Korea said, in the latest test that is part of efforts by the North to advance technology capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
“AUKUS is a good excuse for North Korea to justify their nuclear ambitions. Although the AUKUS submarines don‘t carry nuclear warheads like the ones that Pyongyang hopes to develop, the subs are nuclear powered. So North Korea could make a case that it’s a double standard,” Ewha Womans University Professor of North Korea StudiesPark Won-gon told US news outlet ABC7
China has 58 submarines in its fleet, and this is expected to grow to 76 by the 2030s. During the past 15 years China has constructed 12 nuclear boats. It is estimated that by 2030, China will operate around 60 modern diesel electric and 20 nuclear-powered attack submarines, as well as a dozen huge ballistic missile-firing SSBNs.
Japan is increasing its fleet from 16 to 22 conventionally powered submarines. South Korea, India, Pakistan, Thailand, The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Singapore have all been expanding, modernising or acquiring submarines.
In 2020, former US president Donald Trump declined South Korea’s request for nuclear-powered submarines.
What is the military capability of Australia’s planned nuclear-powered submarines?
Australia will operate three of the quietest, longest-range submarines available by the late 2030s, will have have vertical launch tubes enabling them to fire Tomahawk missiles that can hit land or maritime targets from at least 1500 km.
The Virginia-class subs will come equipped with 12 vertical launch cells and four torpedo tubes each. They are 7925 tonne monsters that can travel at speeds of more than 25 knots an hour (46 km/h) - about three times as fast as Australia’s Collins-class boats.
The Virginia-class subs and subsequent AUKUS-class boats will be able to lurk quietly off China’s main submarine base at Hainan Island, or near key choke points in the East and South China Seas, able to intercept Chinese subs and surface ships or launch strikes on the Chinese mainland.
Nuclear submarines have been pre-eminent in naval warfare for decades because they are almost impossible to detect. No matter how slowly large nuclear submarines travel, they move a lot of water and so generate a wake.
But on the surface, the wake is invisible to the human eye and conventional technology because it is lost in the random pattern of waves.
They also posses an effectively unlimited power source, giving them greater range and endurance and providing crew members with greater comforts such as hot water.
The Australian-built vessels will be the same as those operated by Britain.
When will Australia get nuclear submarines?
The first will be delivered in 2042, stretching out until 2050. The delivery schedule may mean planned life-extending upgrades will not be required for all six of the navy’s existing Collins-class submarines, but the government will decide that once the nuclear sub acquisition is underway. In the meantime, the US will start to lift the tempo of its nuclear submarine visits to Australia from 2023, with Australian crew members training on board the boats.
What will happen to the submarines’ nuclear waste?
Australia has committed to managing all radioactive waste generated through its nuclear-propelled submarine program, including spent nuclear fuel, on Australian soil. The nuclear reactors for all of the vessels will be welded shut and will not require refuelling over their service life.
The US is examining what additional costs may be required.
Australia has just over 20 years to find and build a domestic nuclear waste storage facility to deal safely with the spent fuel used to propel the nuclear submarines acquired and built under the AUKUS deal. Australia will be obliged under the terms of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty to store all nuclear waste generated via the submarine program.
A site must be found and be fully operational by the early 2050s.
South Australia is likely to play a key role in identifying and possibly even providing a site for the waste storage facility, with the state having looked closely at the issue in 2016 when former Governor Kevin Scarce headed a Royal Commission which recommended the creation of a nuclear waste storage industry in SA.
The Scarce report estimated that the cost of identifying a site and conducting geological testing to ensure its stability could run to $1 billion, which would have been easily recouped through customer nations wanting to offload spent nuclear fuel and by-products.
Because the reactors do not need to be refuelled and come as a sealed unit, the strong advice to defence experts before the announcement on March 14 was was that a civil industry was not required to build and operate the submarines. Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, Chief of Navy’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Task Force, has sought advice from nuclear physicists and technicians at the Lucas Heights reactor.
“They’ve been dealing with nuclear waste for many years, so we talk to them as we look at our own solutions for nuclear waste,” Mead told The Australian. “We’re continually embedding people in the US and UK training organisations and their workforces, and seeing what they’re doing in shipyards, talking to their legal people, embedding with the State Department.