AUKUS: Nuclear subs possible for Australia by 2030: US defence expert

Australia could have two nuclear powered submarines a decade ahead of the AUKUS timetable, according to a US defence expert.

Australia could have two nuclear powered submarines of its own by 2030, a decade ahead of the timetable laid out under the AUKUS security pact, according to a US defence expert close to the Pentagon.

Bryan Clark, a former adviser to the head of US naval operations, said a new bipartisan bill in Congress to allow Australian naval officers to train on US nuclear submarines signalled the US would provide “one or two” nuclear submarines by 2030.

“Previously I thought the US would not be willing to follow through with the subs part of AUKUS – because of a reluctance to give up domestic submarine production to Australia - but it sounds like there’s been movement on that, that the US may be willing to divert some of its new submarines,” he told The Australian.

“I think the US is now looking at giving Australia one of the final block IV Virginia class subs, within the next few years, as it comes off production, with a second one by the end of the decade,” Mr Clark, a defence technology expert at the Hudson Institute, who earlier spent 25 years in the US navy, said.

The Australian Submarine Officer Pipeline Bill, which will see Australian sailors train on US nuclear-powered submarines, became part of the US military budget negotiations last week, helping ease its passage through the Senate.

“Inclusion in this year’s [military budgeting] is a clear signal that our effort and the underlying AUKUS alliance both have strong, bipartisan support in Congress,” said Democrat Congressman Joe Courtney, who first introduced the bill.

The AUKUS security pact between Australia, the US and UK, which emerged in September, provided 18 months for the three nations to develop a concrete path for Australia to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines using UK and US technology.

“It’s an open question over how the rest will be built though, the US doesn’t have the capacity to provide six or eight,” Mr Clark said.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton was criticised earlier this month for revealing plans in train when he was defence minister to obtain two nuclear powered submarines before 2030.

The AUKUS pact envisages the prospective nuclear-powered submarines would be built in Australia, but experts have suggested the earlier submarines at least would be made in the US or UK.

“It’s more likely they’ll be US built and they’ll establish maintenance and overhaul facilities in Australia,” Mr Clark said.

Kurt Campbell, Joe Biden’s National Security Council Co-ordinator for the Indo-Pacific, said last week the three-way security deal was “behind the scenes making quietly remarkable progress in areas associated with tech”, flagging an “announcement about the submarine initiative shortly”.

The Biden administration has praised the Albanese government for maintaining the previous government’s focus on AUKUS and for working with the US to push back against Chinese belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region.

“Establishing a joint training pipeline between our navy and the Australian navy is a critical step that will take our security partnership to the next level,” said Congressman Mike Gallagher, a Republican, who also sponsored the joint training bill.

The government agreed earlier this month to pay France, where Prime minister Anthony Albanese will meet president Emmanuel Macron this week, a 555-million-euro settlement over Australia’s severance of an earlier contract with French industry to build a fleet of conventional submarines to replace the ageing Collins class.

Charles Edel, a senior adviser at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies specialising in Australia, said shared manning of submarines would “jump-start” the AUKUS process.

“One of the key requirements for Australia to field nuclear propelled submarines is ensuring that they have the sailors to crew those subs,” he told The Australian.