The seismic events in Europe, where the future of Ukraine, Russia and European security are at the whim of Vladimir Putin and a deeply erratic Donald Trump, has underlined the need for America’s allies to boost defence self-reliance.
On this side of the world, surprise live-firing exercises by the Chinese navy in between New Zealand and Australia show that China is just as belligerent as ever in its quest for strategic advantage in the region.
In our backyard, Trump’s retreat from foreign aid has made it harder for Australia to prevent Pacific Island nations turning to China for their economic and their physical security as the US shows itself to be an unreliable partner. Trump’s abandonment of the post-war world order, with his voting against the West in the United Nations on the Ukraine war and his appeasement of Putin, requires a reappraisal of Australia’s defence posture by both Albanese and Peter Dutton.
Starmer has responded to these new uncertainties by claiming Britain faces a “generational” challenge to its security. He has pledged to lift Britain’s defence spending from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent in just two years, with a “clear ambition” to lift it to 3 per cent of GDP after the next election.
Starmer, who has also pledged British peacekeeping troops as part of any peace deal on Ukraine, is being driven in part by Trump’s demands that European nations pay more for their security.
But the global message from Trump could not be more clear and it could not be less reassuring for allies like Australia. The US under Trump is no guarantor of any relationship, because history, traditional and shared values have been subjugated to transactional deal-making.
No one knows exactly how Trump will deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Beijing’s push for hegemony in the Indo Pacific, but after watching his appeasement of Putin, who can be confident the President will be as tough with his Chinese counterpart as Australia would like?
The Albanese government currently spends barely 2 per cent of GDP on defence – below almost all of its like-minded European counterparts, from Britain (2.3) to Poland (4.1), Greece (3.1), Denmark and Finland (2.4), Norway (2.2), and Sweden, Germany, Turkey and France (2.1).
The government revealed in Defence estimates on Wednesday it plans almost no meaningful increase in the next few years – 2.03 per cent this financial year, 2.02 in 2026-27 and 2.12 in 27-28, before it eventually rises to 2.3 per cent in 2033-34, nine years from now.
Is that really fast enough for a country that claims it faces the worst strategic circumstances in half a century? Australia and the world’s democracies are confronted by a growing alliance between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. At the same time, Canberra – through the AUKUS nuclear submarine plan, marine rotations in the north and US submarine basing in the west – is increasing its defence reliance on an increasingly unreliable America.
Trajectories in defence spending are long term and increases made today will not necessarily be felt during the Trump presidency. But there is a strong argument that the government needs to step up on national security and respond forcefully – like Starmer did – to these new security challenges. It should promise during this coming election campaign to fast-track defence spending from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP, like Starmer has, with an aspirational future target of 3 per cent.
This pledge should be at least matched by Dutton’s Coalition. Defence spending is rarely a major focus in any election campaign, but global security, including in Australia’s immediate region, is deteriorating rapidly. Both sides of politics should reassure voters in this coming campaign that they will respond by accelerating their plans to invest in Australia’s military.
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The Chinese live-fire controversy and the chaotic events in Europe are a reminder of why the Albanese government should scrap its go-slow increase in defence spending and consider the lead of British Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has just announced a historic fast-track of Britain’s military capability.