Alliance locks us in if US goes to war, says Andrew Shearer

Australia could not avoid engagement in a conflict involving the US in the Asia-Pacific region, Andrew Shearer says.

Andrew Shearer, formerly national security ­adviser to John Howard.

Australia could not avoid engagement in any major conflict involving the US in the Asia-Pacific region, including one with China, a former Howard and ­Abbott government national security ­adviser has warned after backing Malcolm Turnbull’s threat to ­invoke the ANZUS treaty over a potential showdown between the US and North Korea.

Australia should also reduce its vulnerability to economic ­coercion by China by deepening ties with India, Japan, South Korea and the emerging middle-class powerhouses of Southeast Asia, which are moving to strengthen defence alliances with the US.

Long-time security “hawk” Andrew Shearer claims China’s economic influence over Australia is overstated in any case and should not be used as an argument to diminish Australia’s strategic alliance with the US.

The assessment of the rapidly escalating risk of conflict in the region comes as satellite imagery emerged yesterday suggesting that North Korea could be ramping up its submarine-launched missile capability after threatening to launch a strike against the US territory of Guam.

In a speech to the Institute of Public Affairs in Sydney tonight, Mr Shearer will say Australia should not allow itself to “be ­intimidated into compromising either our fundamental national security choices or our values by the threat of economic payback”.

With regional security under threat amid the North Korean crisis, Mr Shearer also describes as “fanciful” any suggestion that Australia should re-evaluate its alliance with the US.

“Australia obviously should not go out of its way to pick ­unnecessary fights, and the ­national interest should remain our lodestar when it comes to weighing closer co-operation with our allies,” Mr Shearer writes in The Australian today.

“Commentators have tended to worry about Australia being dragged into a war with China. More recently, of course, it has been less ‘entrapment’ in war between the US and China that has been in prospect than the risk of Australia being caught up in a conflict with North Korea.

“To judge from much of the commentary, you would think that President (Donald) Trump’s supposed unsteadiness is the real threat, not Kim Jong-un’s nuclear and missile programs and brinkmanship — an egregious instance of moral relativism. In this context it is good to see the Australian government firmly supporting the administration’s position and ­declaring that Australia would ­invoke ANZUS in the event of a North Korean attack on the US.

“The idea that Australia could somehow stand aside from a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific region that involved the US is fanciful. So are suggestions that drawing back is the best response to the Trump administration.

“For all the furore it generated, the slightly prickly phone call ­between President Trump and Prime Minister (Malcolm) Turnbull was a very minor blip. Historically, the alliance has survived ... despite much bigger ructions.

“Moreover — with the partial exception of trade policy — much of the Trump administration’s emerging international agenda looks very orthodox, and in several respects it marks a significant improvement on his predecessor’s foreign policy.”

Mr Shearer said it was a “worrying development” for the alliance that Labor’s support could no longer be taken for granted: “Opposition to the US alliance is a longstanding minority strand of Australian foreign policy opinion. Typically it amounts to little more than deep-seated cultural resentment.”