Spy chief fears conflict this decade as ADF ‘monitors’ Chinese naval flotilla
Outgoing Office of National Intelligence boss Andrew Shearer has warned of the region faces the prospect of a major conflict within the decade, as Defence tracks a new Chinese naval task group.
Spymaster Andrew Shearer has warned of the region faces the prospect of a major conflict within the next ten years, as Defence Minister Richard Marles revealed the ADF was closely monitoring a Chinese naval task group that could be heading towards Australia.
In his final Senate Estimates appearance, the outgoing Office of National Intelligence director-general and noted China hawk excoriated “dangerous interceptions and rising tensions around the South China Sea (which) illustrate how coercive tactics are increasingly used to assert spurious territorial claims”.
His testimony on Monday night came after Mr Marles confirmed the presence of the PLA-Navy task group in the Philippine Sea, some 3000 nautical miles from Sydney, amid concerns it could turn south. The warships are the focus of intense surveillance after three Chinese warships circumnavigated Australia earlier this year in an unprecedented show of force.
Mr Shearer, who has been appointed as Australia’s next Ambassador to Japan, said the assumptions that had underpinned international stability for decades could no longer be taken for granted.
“Crises are overlapping and intersecting … Warning times are shorter, meaning we have to act now if we are to be prepared for what may be coming.,” he told Senate Estimates.
“Most consequentially, should deterrence break down, notwithstanding the efforts of our government and our allies, we would face a rising risk of major conflict in our region within the next decade.
“In the Pacific, efforts to build influence over elites have become more overt and sustained. Dangerous interceptions and rising tensions around the South China Sea illustrate how coercive tactics are increasingly used to assert spurious territorial claims.”
The government was embarrassed in February when it learned from a Virgin Airlines pilot of a live-fire weapons drill conducted by the a Chinese naval flotilla known as Task Group 107, despite an “unprecedented” surveillance operation.
Mr Shearer said the February deployment demonstrated “the speed, confidence and reach that now characterises regional military capability development and competition”.
“China was seeking to demonstrate that it has the capability to project and sustain maritime power further afield, and in doing that it has … a number of objectives. One of them is to demonstrate to countries in the Indo-Pacific its military capabilities to influence their decision-making calculus,” he said.
“There were aspects of that particular deployment that, in our preliminary assessment, were intended to have an intimidatory effect on us, and by extension, on other nearby countries.
“There will be further such task group deployments, and we would expect them to become more frequent, and to continue demonstrating that ability to project and sustain naval power further from mainland China.”
Mr Shearer, a former national security adviser to Coalition Prime Ministers, also warned “malign states” were “colluding with criminals … to enable hacking, sabotage, assassinations and political interference” overseas. He said China was using “all of the facets of national power” to accrue influence through the Pacific, name-checking the Belt and Road Initiative.
Mr Marles confirmed on Monday the ADF was tracking the latest task group, whose presence was revealed in a newspaper report. “Let me emphasise … we do not have a sense of where it is going, but we continue to monitor it as we monitor all movements, until we know that task groups are not coming to Australia,” he said.
The latest Chinese task group is said to be a “capable” one but its make-up is unclear.
Task Group 107 included one of Beijing’s most powerful warships, the 12,000 tonne Zunyi, a Renhai-class destroyer equipped with 112 vertical launch missile cells – more than twice as many as Australia’s most capable warships.
Anthony Albanese raised Australia’s concerns over the task group’s live fire drill with President Xi Jinping during a July audience in Beijing.
Mr Xi told the Prime Minister Chinese ships would sail wherever they wanted in international waters. “In response, President Xi said that China engaged in exercises just as Australia engages in exercises,” Mr Albanese said at the time.
Asked on Monday whether the government expected more notice of weapons drills if the latest task group reached Australian waters, Mr Marles said he would not discuss hypotheticals.
“We have made all the representations of which you’re aware in relation to Task Group 107 early this year, in respect of a live-firing exercise that occurred in the past,” he said.
“We have made those representations at the highest level.”
He said Defence monitored Australia’s geographic areas of interests as far afield as Northeast Asia.
“We are doing so right now. We are aware of the task group … and yes, we are monitoring it,” Mr Marles said.
He dismissed criticisms that Defence had failed to monitor Task Group 107 closely enough, after relying on support from a New Zealand frigate, and the Virgin pilot’s warning.
“I would say, in respect of Task Group 107 … that we absolutely had an unprecedented level of surveillance of that task group by the Royal Australian Navy, and we did do it in conjunction with our friends and allies,” Mr Marles said.
“And you can be assured that at any point in the future we will bring that same degree of determination and commitment to any journey that happens in our particular area.”
Opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor said the Chinese Communist Party was testing Australia, “projecting power in ways designed to intimidate and undermine the rules-based order”.
“Reports of another flotilla headed for our region are cause for concern. Defence officials have been clear: the live fire exercise and the recent circumnavigation of Australia are not one-off events. They’re part of an emerging pattern of provocations Australians cannot ignore,” he said.
ANU international law expert Don Rothwell said the latest Chinese ships were “a long way from Australia” and was more likely focused on The Philippines, with which Beijing has multiple territorial disputes.
To get to Australia, it would need to pass either through the Indonesian archipelago or to the east of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.
Professor Rothwell said passage via the Indonesian archipelago could trigger an initial response from Indonesia, given its enhanced security co-operation with Australia under a yet to be signed November 12 Australia-Indonesia treaty.
He said given the PLA-Navy’s past form in shining lasers against RAAF surveillance aircraft, “it has to be expected that there is every prospect of a similar incident occurring if the PLA-N get close to the Australian coast”.
Mr Albanese held secret talks with China’s No. 3 leader, National People’s Congress chairman Zhao Leji, in his Canberra office last week.
Mr Zhao was an official guest of the parliament, but the Prime Minister’s office refused to provide a readout, dismissing their talks as a “private conversation”.
Mr Albanese has worked since his election to stabilise Australia-China relations and speaks of himself as being a “bridge” between Beijing and Washington.
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