Covid-19: NSW plots a scenario for unvaccinated to re-enter the economy

Unvaccinated people will be permitted to re-enter the economy in the lead-up to Christmas, with the state’s crisis cabinet expected to set a date for their return.

Sydney CBD is like a ghost town when the city would normally be a hub of activity. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

Unvaccinated people will be permitted to re-enter the economy in the lead-up to Christmas, with the state’s crisis cabinet expected to set a date for their return participation instead of indexing it to a vaccination benchmark.

Officials are now working on three “road maps” for NSW’s exit from lockdown, including for unvaccinated residents, although ­discussions remain ongoing as to how the state will accommodate them and when this should occur.

The first road map is expected to take effect on October 11 once the state reaches its first benchmark of 70 per cent vaccination coverage; this will see a significant easing of restrictions applying to restaurants, retailers and other industry groups, allowing them to recommence trade.

A second plan will ease restrictions further once 80 per cent coverage is achieved; it is mooted to take effect from October 25, according to an official familiar with the matter, who said the third plan for unvaccinated residents remained a work in progress.

The NSW crisis cabinet discussed unvaccinated residents on Friday and reached a consensus that they should be permitted to participate in the economy later this year, most likely before Christmas, the official said.

This would coincide with vaccination rates reaching statewide double-dosage targets of 90 per cent, they added.

Central to discussions was the need to minimise the impact of a predicted jump in Covid-19 caseloads, which are forecast to overrun the health system in coming weeks and potentially overwhelm intensive care units.

On Sunday, the state had 961 fresh cases of the virus in the 24 hours to 8pm on Saturday and nine deaths among people in their 40s, 60s, 70s and 80s, eight of whom were unvaccinated; the ninth had one vaccine dose.

Modelling by the Burnet Institute for the NSW government during late August predicted a surge in hospitalisations during the latter half of October and first two weeks of November.

On the day the modelling was released - September 6 - 177 people were in ICUs receiving treatment for Covid-19. The institute’s forecasts predicted ICU admissions peaking at 560 Covid-19 cases, most likely during November, at which time they would overwhelm the hospital system.

Figures released on Sunday by NSW Health showed 1146 Covid-19 patients were being treated in hospital, with 222 people in intensive care.

At a press briefing on Sunday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian spoke optimistically about the outlook for NSW over coming months but conceded case numbers would spike as restrictions were eased.

She said residents considering intrastate travel during November and December could be assured their plans would not need to be put in jeopardy by the pandemic response, although some regions could return to lockdown if health officials deemed it necessary.

“It is safe to book for Christmas,” she said. “Definitely look at November as a month when you can start planning a trip that you may not have been able to have within NSW for a very long time.”

She said her preference was that the entire state open at the same time.