Covid-19 hospital admissions set to double

Hospitalisations have already steadily risen since the beginning of June, as experts sound the warning over the BA. 5 variant.

Winter and highly-infectious variants are to blame for rising Covid hospital admissions. Picture: istock

Hospital admissions from Covid could double over the next month alone, having already steadily risen since the beginning of June, infectious disease expert Peter Collignon warns.

In mid-March, 965 people were in hospital across NSW, the state with the most hospital cases, but as of July 5 those numbers had jumped to 1782.

Queensland has the fastest rate of growth, up from 233 hospital cases in mid-March to 710 now. Victoria has also experienced a steady rise in hospital ­admissions, recording 545 cases on Tuesday compared with less than 200 in mid-March.

Professor Collignon has blamed winter and the highly ­infectious Omicron variants for rising hospital admissions.

“The BA. 5 variant is spreading and that will probably take another month before it starts coming down,” he said. “So my expectation is over the next month, we’ll see increasing numbers. It may actually double what it is now … I don’t think we’ll see 10 times the number in hospital for instance, but it might be twice as much as what we’re seeing now because it’s winter.”

Professor Collignon said the elderly, immunocompromised and those without a booster dose of vaccine were making up the rising hospital numbers.

“The main people who are dying or getting seriously ill are still people over the age of 80, disproportionately, and a lot of them seem not to have a third dose, let alone a fourth dose,” he said.

“There’s still not enough emphasis on those who are most at risk – people basically over the age of 70 and particularly with underlying illnesses – to make sure they’ve had their third dose and preferably a fourth dose. And also so they have early interventions with drugs that further decrease their risk.”

 

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant on Tuesday predicted hospital admissions would reach levels not seen since the BA. 1 wave in January, when the state saw more than 2000 patients admitted. She expected this Omicron-driven wave to peak in late July or early August.

Epidemiologist Katrina Roper has encouraged at-risks groups to take the initiative to reduce their chances of falling seriously ill and subsequently attending hospital.

Professor Roper said vulnerable members of the population might also want to consider modifying their behaviours, such as wearing a mask in settings where it was not mandated.

“If you are a person who is at risk of severe illness, if you’re an older person, if you have under­lying comorbidities, talk to your healthcare professional to find out if you’re eligible for the therapies so that if you do test positive for Covid, you access those therapies earlier.

“That way, that really reduces your risk of then progressing to hospital,” Professor Roper said.

“There’s a lot we can still do to protect ourselves without having to wait for someone to pass a ­ruling on it.

“We can all think about our own individual risks and take appropriate actions in accordance with our individual risks.”

While the current trend points to a spike in hospital admissions in winter, the number of patients requiring intensive care is dis­proportionately less.

Of the 265,699 active Covid cases in Australia, just 1.3 per cent have been admitted to hospital.

A total of 3511 people are in hospital, with 118 patients requiring intensive care, according to the latest health department data.