Coronavirus: Scientists urge caution over ‘new dominant COVID-19 strain’

An international study has identified a new strain of COVID-19, which the authors say has become dominant worldwide.

A study found evidence the new strain infected many more people than the original COVID-19 that emanated from Wuhan.

Australian scientists are responding with caution to an international study that has identified a new strain of COVID-19, which the study’s authors say has become dominant worldwide.

Research led by scientists at the US-based Los Alamos National Laboratory documented 14 mutations in the coronavirus spike protein that attaches itself to human cells, identifying one of the mutations of “urgent concern”.

It said the new strain of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, began spreading in Europe in early February, “and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form”.

The study warned that if a person was infected with the new strain, they may be more vulnerable to contracting COVID-19 for a second time.

The study‘s authors, who included scientists from Duke University in North Carolina and the University of Sheffield in England, said they believed there was an “urgent need for an early warning” to be issued to scientists around the world who were working on a vaccine to protect against coronavirus, because research into vaccine development has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains of COVID-19, and any vaccine produced may not be effective against later strains.

The study, which has yet to be peer reviewed, said there was evidence the new strain of COVID-19 infected many more people than the original strains that emanated from Wuhan. The scientists extrapolated from this that the mutation in the virus’s spikes that they studied, called D614G, may be more infectious.

“D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate, indicating a fitness advantage relative to the original Wuhan strain that enables more rapid spread,” the study said.

But University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay urged caution over the findings, saying it was far too early to speculate on whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s mutations made it more contagious.

Professor Mackay said the strain of coronavirus identified by the scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory was already known to be circulating in Australia.

He said the study was based on computer analysis only and had not analysed the new strain in a laboratory.

“It’s a good study, it shows us about mutations and it’s now analysing them and that sort of work absolutely needs to be done with a new emerging virus,” Professor Mackay said. “But to go any further than that, from basically a desk-based study, is not correct.

“You’ve got to do some actual laboratory work to find out whether those mutations are meaningful or have any functional impact. And certainly, we can’t say anything about transmission based on looking at sequences on a computer screen.”

Professor Mackay said mutations in the virus did not necessarily have a significant impact on vaccine development.

“There’s nothing at this stage to suggest this change will have any impact on the structure of the protein, and nothing to suggest it will affect anything about the way vaccine development will function or the type of immunity that will be generated.

“Down the track, that might happen, once that work is done. This study is really just like sticking up a flag and saying this is worth having a look at.”

Commonwealth deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly also responded to the study with caution, saying the virus had been “relatively stable” since it first emerged in Wuhan. “There are recognised slightly different strains but they are not that different from previous ones,” Professor Kelly said. “We are doing our own genetic examinations at the moment, there are slight differences but essentially the virus is the same as the one we saw the first time in our first cases in late January that came directly from Wuhan.”