Coronavirus: Hospitals to be swamped ‘within weeks’

Australian hospitals are likely to be swamped by thousands of corona­virus cases within a month, experts say.

People queue outside the Royal Melbourne Hospital on Tuesday waiting to be tested for the coronavirus. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Australian hospitals are likely to be swamped by thousands of corona­virus cases within a month, experts say. The warning came as doctors called for dramatically stepped-up testing to determine how many cases are currently in the ­community.

Yet doubts have emerged about the need to quarantine people for 14 days, with suggestions this could be reduced in the future.

It follows a report by Johns Hopkins Univer­sity in the US that symptoms appear in most people five days after infection.

“As the data emerges around the incubation period, it does seem to be more in the five to seven-day period and the 14 days does have a margin for error,” Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy, said.

“It would help significantly if we could consider a reduction in the incubation period or the quarantine time.”

Around the world in affected countries, cases of COVID-19 have doubled every six days, and the head of the biosecurity program at the UNSW’s Kirby Institute, Raina MacIntyre, said a similar rate of ­infection could be expected in Australia.

“Basically the doubling time of the epidemic is six days,” Professor MacIntyre said. “So it’s going to get worse very, very quickly.

“If it becomes widespread, there is the potential for the health system to be overwhelmed.”

Based on a doubling time of six days, there would be more than 3200 cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in Australia within a month.

The estimated jump in cases came as health experts called for testing to be made more widely available so that everyone who wanted to be screened could be. However, the federal government continues to insist only people who have returned from overseas and are experiencing symptoms, or close contacts of those already infected should seek a test.

Emeritus professor John Dwyer said he believed a strong case existed for “random testing” so that health authorities could ­assess the degree to which the virus had spread. It could then be determined what added measures might be needed to isolate the infected and reduce the spread.

Professor Dwyer, an immunologist with the University of NSW who took a leading role in the campaign to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS, said he believed not enough testing was being done.

“The government is making a major effort to minimise infection but the reality is that the number of cases is growing quickly,” he said. “There needs to be a strategy to keep cases away from those who are highly vulnerable.

“The vast majority of cases will not face serious consequences, their symptoms could be minor, but they can infect vulnerable people who will die. So we need a lot more testing.”

Stephen Leeder, emeritus professor of public health at the University of Sydney, said everyone wanting a test should be permitted to have one. “They should be readily available, with no hindrance or waiting around,” he said.

The NSW Health Department has issued guidelines consistent with the federal government’s ­advice on limited testing. A ­department spokesman said NSW Health was advising people to stick with its recommended “pathway” of calling the state hotline or contacting their GP by phone if they had travelled overseas or ­believed they had symptoms.

He said hospital emergency ­department services and district “fever clinics” were being expanded to cope with an increase in ­demand for tests, but only those with more serious symptoms should go to be screened.

Despite the advice, hundreds of people are continuing to turn up at hospitals asking to be tested, and others have been referred for testing by their GPs to labs where the tests are not performed. The Royal Melbourne Hospital was swamped on Tuesday, with queues of people waiting to be tested.

Professor Murphy acknowledged confusion over testing, but said there were moves under way to provide clear, consistent advice.

There are also moves to bolster the staffing of the national COVID-19 hotline. On average, public hospitals in Australia operate at 80 per cent ­capacity, stretching to 100 per cent during the winter flu season. Last year, in a mild flu season, more than 3700 people were admitted, with almost 250 cases requiring intensive care.

Professor MacIntyre said the coronavirus would place greater pressure on hospitals at the same time as they were coping with flu. “It will be like a flu season but on steroids,” she said.