Coronavirus: hospitals ‘can handle infection spotfires’

Hospitals are ready to cope with outbreaks of coronavirus that Scott Morrison says are inevitable with relaxed restrictions.

University of Melbourne professor Tony Blakely says the Prime Minister’s statement that outbreaks of COVID-19 would occur as restrictions are progressively eased was realistic.

Hospitals are well-placed to cope with outbreaks of coronavirus that Scott Morrison has warned Australians are inevitable with relaxed restrictions, according to epidemiologists who believe contact tracking and mass testing are the key to controlling the spread of disease.

Frantic preparations since February have seen Australia’s stockpile of ventilators surge to in excess of 10,000, and the number of ICU hospital beds quadruple in some parts of the country.

That means that if outbreaks are experienced, and if case numbers of COVID-19 begin to climb, the health system will be well-equipped to manage any influx of patients. The incidence of disease would have to rise to tens of thousands of cases before hospitals would be overwhelmed, and that would be unlikely if governments are careful in their relaxation of ­restrictions and insist upon widespread testing.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said the Prime Minister’s statement that outbreaks of COVID-19 would occur as restrictions are progressively eased was realistic.

“I found that announcement very interesting because that was a pretty clear declaration that we’re going for suppression, not elimination,” Professor Blakely said. “It was an honest, upfront acknowledgment that we’re going to get outbreaks going forward, and I ­actually think that’s quite realistic.

“Assuming that we are going into suppression then Scott Morrison is exactly correct, we will see cases pop up here and there. We will see outbreaks quite often between now and whenever a vaccine arrives. That’s our new reality.”

Professor Blakely said as long as the impact of lifting restrictions was carefully monitored, strong contact tracing methods were in place and widespread testing ­occurred, case numbers should ­remain relatively low.

“We will also nowhere near test the limit on our ICU capacity. This level of infection will be way ­beneath what we can cope with. We’re not going to need thousands of ICU beds. We’ll be in a place with just occasional grumbling outbreaks.”

But Adam Kamradt-Scott, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Sydney’s Centre for International Security Studies, warned hospitals may be under ­increased pressure during winter and if COVID-19 outbreaks occur frequently, it would not take much to push the health system beyond its capacity.

“The primary issue is that while we might anticipate small numbers, we can’t afford for any new outbreak to grow too large,” Professor Kamradt-Scott said. “It’s a critical time especially at the ­moment given that we are coming into the winter season and we see that every year our healthcare system is placed under strain just from the regular flu.

“And it’s not just about the bed capacity, it’s about the number of trained healthcare workers that can staff those beds.”

It will be critical as outbreaks occur that health authorities are able to control them, said La Trobe University epidemiologist Hassan Vally. “Tracing and testing will be so important to make sure we can stamp out outbreaks and we ­remain in control,” he said.

Australian National University’s Shane Thomas agreed: “We’ve not got close to anywhere near the health system capacity as yet.”