Coronavirus: Death rates of elderly laid bare

Analysis of Victoria’s cases and deaths shows the elderly are at exponentially greater risk of dying.

Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton. Picture: Wayne Taylor

Six children younger than 10 were in Victorian hospitals with coronavirus on Tuesday, but analysis of the state’s cases and deaths shows the elderly are at exponentially greater risk of dying.

The virus claimed a record 19 deaths in the 24 hours to Tuesday after Monday’s 19 deaths was revised down to 18, with Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services attributing the change to a “duplication” in reporting. It is the second day in a row that DHHS has revised the death toll down due to “duplic­ation”, without offering any further explanation.

The department also revealed on Tuesday in a breakdown of the ages of Victoria’s 15,251 COVID-19 cases that the ages of 236 people were not known because­ they were “not contact­able. Again, the department ­offered no further explanation.

The deaths came as the case numbers continued their slow downward trend of recent days, with 331 new cases bringing the seven-day daily average down to 451 cases — the lowest seven-day daily average in 12 days — despite the record 725 new cases recorded last Wednesday.

Active cases increased by just 11 on Tuesday, to 7880, due to the combination of people recovering from the virus, the lower number of new cases, and the 19 deaths.

People in their 80s make up 41.9 per cent of Victoria’s 246 deaths from coronavirus, despite comprising 5 per cent of cases.

There have been two people in their 30s in Victoria who have died (0.8 per cent), one person in their 40s (0.4 per cent), 10 people in their 50s (4.1 per cent), 12 in their 60s (4.9 per cent), 47 people in their 70s (19.1 per cent), and 71 people aged 90 or older (28.9 per cent).

Of the 15,251 cases in Victoria, there have been 820 cases in children aged up to nine years old (5.4 per cent), and 1530 in people aged 10-19 (10 per cent), as well as 3610 in people in their 20s (23.7 per cent) and 2708 in those in their 30s (17.8 per cent).

There have been 1976 cases in people in their 40s (13 per cent), 1680 cases in people in their 50s (11 per cent), 1005 cases in people in their 60s (6.6 per cent), 657 cases in people in their 70s (4.3 per cent), 769 cases in people in their 80s (5 per cent), and 492 cases in people aged 90 or older (3.2 per cent).

Of the 650 people in Victor­ian hospitals with coronavirus on Tuesday, six were younger than 10, two were aged 10-19, eight were in their 20s, 20 in their 30s, 23 in their 40s, 49 in their 50s and 66 in their 60s. There were also 117 people in their 70s, 233 in their 80s and 126 people aged 90 or older in Victorian hospitals with coronavirus. Of the 650, 47 were in intens­ive care, including 24 who were on ventilators.

Tuesday’s 19 deaths — 14 of which were linked to aged care — brought Victoria’s death toll to 246, all but 20 of which have occurred since July 5.

There have now been 2903 COVID-19 cases in Victoria where contact tracers have been unable to find a link to known cases. This does not include 2151 cases under investigation.