Coronavirus: COVID-19 10 times worse than flu, say scientists

Australian scientists warn COVID-19 is ‘10 times worse’ than flu and spreading faster in Western countries than it did in China.

A worker wearing protective gear sprays disinfectant in Seoul. Picture: AFP

The Australian scientists who best know COVID-19 warn it is “10 times worse” than flu and spreading faster in Western countries than it did in China.

Molecular virologist Paul Young, leading the research team trying to develop a vaccine at the University of Queensland, said people should not underestimate the potency of the new coronavirus or the “serious” illness it caused.

Professor Young and colleagues Keith Chappell, Trent Munro and Daniel Watterson are in a unique position to evaluate COVID-19, having successfully tested their promising molecular clamp technology on six other ­infectious diseases, including the coronavirus MERS and influenza. Their COVID-19 vaccine is set to enter human trials by mid-year and could be available before ­December.

“There is no doubt this is a serious disease,” Professor Young said. “It’s a dangerous game to start trying to relate it to other viruses ­because we are still so early in our knowledge of this virus.

“But most measures of both the severity at that end of the disease spectrum from patients being hospitalised, down to fatalities, show it’s probably 10 times worse than influenza.”

While Australian Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy maintained on Sunday the risk of infection remained low, the number of cases has begun to accelerate, official figures show.

At the start of last week, Australia had reported 63 cases of COVID-19, 10 of them involving passengers taken off the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.

On Sunday, the total had climbed to 298, headed by NSW with 134 cases and Victoria with 57. NSW reported a spike of 22 new infections in a day, while Queensland had 26 additional cases over the weekend.

Based on experience of the epidemic in China, each person who contracts COVID-19 will infect at least two other people, more than twice that of seasonal flu. The death rate of about 2 per cent in China is expected to be halved here, according to Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young, a function of Australia’s advanced health system and the additional time it had to prepare. This compares with a death rate of about 0.1 per cent for flu.

Underlining the threat posed by COVID-19, Scott Morrison said yesterday: “It is a more severe condition than the flu. But for the vast majority — around eight in 10 is our advice — it will be a mild illness and it will pass.

“However, for older Australians and those who are more vulnerable, particularly those in remote communities and those with pre-existing health conditions, it is a far more serious virus and that is our concern.”

Professor Young said Singapore and South Korea had replicated some of the “extreme” control measures imposed by the Chinese government, but this had not happened in most of the West.

“We have delayed our particular peak but we have not delayed entry of the virus into the population,” he said.

“We are now seeing person-to-person transmission in Australia, and it will eventually take off.”

Professor Munro said the world could and should have acted sooner after the virus began to spread from its apparent ignition point in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

“The thing that did alarm some parts of the community, and I think where the world could have ­responded faster, is understanding how quickly transmission was happening in Wuhan and the way … the balance between the mortality rate and the spread was really alarming,” he said.

“That was obvious very early on and it has … taken a long time for the rest of us to catch on that the extreme control measures that China put in place look like they have had a big impact.”

Professor Young said the molecular clamp vaccine platform had, in animal tests, neutralised the influenza virus and there was every reason to believe it would be equally effective on the new coronavirus.

The first round of test results on laboratory mice were due this week.