Coronavirus could have a ‘silver lining’ in curbing Chinese ambitions, says new adviser

A new government adviser on China relations says coronavirus could hinder Xi Jinping’s domination in the Indo-Pacific.

Professor Rory Medcalf, who was last week appointed to the advisory board of the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations. Picture: Gary Ramage

One of the Morrison government’s new advisers on relations with China says the coronavirus could have a “silver lining”, making it harder for Xi Jinping to sustain the “internal obedience and global respect” required to dominate the Indo-Pacific.

The head of ANU’s National Security College, Professor Rory Medcalf, said the coronavirus was adding to the fragility of President Xi’s rule, which was already under pressure from demographic factors, debt and internal dissent.

“Although I think China in recent years has been set on a very ambitious strategic push across the Indo pacific region, it has internal vulnerabilities that are going to limit its ability to be anything like an imperial power across the Indo-Pacific,” Professor Medcalf told The Australian.

“In many ways, coronavirus is now a heightening of those vulnerabilities.

“There is a kind of strategic silver lining to these kinds of events, because it compels a country like China to revisit what its strategic priorities should be.”

Professor Medcalf, who was last week appointed to the advisory board of the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations, said the risk to China’s “grand strategic ambitions” provided an opportunity for Australia to work with other Indo-Pacific countries to reduce regional tensions.

“The challenge now for Australia and other middle players between the United States and China is to redouble their efforts to build security co-operation and define a future based on mutual respect for sovereignty of nations large and small,” he said.

In a new book, Contest for the Indo-Pacific, Professor Medcalf argues that neither the US or China will be able to dominate the region, and alliances of nations with common interests will be key to ensuring stability.

“Whether we like it or not, we are living in an Indo-Pacific age. It is marked by deep connectivity across a two ocean region. What happens in the Indian Ocean, in Southeast Asia and in the Pacific matters to Australia,” he said.

“The downside of that for us is this is a region that is too big for Australia to single-handedly protect its interests in.

“It’s a big space. We can’t do it all. So the push by Australia in recent years to build these creative new partnerships with countries like Japan, India, Indonesia and others I think makes great sense … to share the burden of stability and security.”

He said “the unsettling aspects of China’s rise” had been felt in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and more recently in the Pacific, accelerating the development of partnerships among nations with common interests.

Professor Medcalf’s book will be officially launched by Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne and opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong in Canberra on Tuesday night.