Coronavirus: complacency and winter loom as big virus threats

Epidemiologists have warned against complacency as Australia marks nine days without a case of community transmission.

‘Until we get a vaccine that’s 90 per cent effective or even better than that rolled out around the world, there’s still a risk you can pick it up or bring it back’: Professor Peter Collignon.

Epidemiologists have warned against complacency regarding coronavirus — particularly in state hotel quarantine programs — as Australia marks nine days without a case of community transmission.

ANU professor Peter Collignon said that while Australia was in a “very good position” equalled only by Taiwan and New Zealand, we would be dealing with the reality of the rest of the world having the virus for the next “two to three years”.

“Until we get a vaccine that’s 90 per cent effective or even better than that rolled out around the world, there’s still a risk you can pick it up or bring it back,” Professor Collignon said.

He warned Australia needed to be especially wary going into next winter, citing recent incidents which saw the virus escape quarantine in South Australia and spread from an air crew to a cleaner in NSW.

“We need to be really on our guard next June, July or even before, because while things haven’t got out of control in SA and NSW, if you look at winter, this transmits much more readily in winter an situations like those could have been a lot worse,” Professor Collignon said.

Victoria’s revamped hotel quarantine system — which opened a week ago — features a range of safeguards such as daily testing of staff and bans on security guards working in the system and staff having second jobs.

The new rules follow the state’s second wave of the virus, sparking 18,000 people infected, 800 killed and millions of Victorians locked at home for months after hotel quarantine security staff spread the virus.

Professor Collignon said settings such as aged care, linked to 652 Victorian deaths, remained vulnerable.