Put heat on climate deaths data and shock factor falls away

The number of heat-related deaths is far below those from scores of health problems and accidental fatalities such as road deaths and falls.

Cemeteries are unlikely to face a surge in heat-related deaths any time soon.

In Benjamin Franklin’s 18th-century America, nothing was certain, except death and taxes.

In Chris Bowen’s 21st-century Australia, death will be even more certain if global warming is allowed to run unchecked.

But how much more certain? And when will the number of people who tragically lose their lives in heatwaves exceed the number of people who die falling off ladders? And that’s even before we consider falls from beds, chairs, wheelchairs, buildings, cliffs – and just generally falling over.

The increase in heatwave deaths of up to 444 per cent – highlighted in the inaugural Climate Risk Assessment Report that Bowen released on Monday – was the most arresting of a cavalcade of potential doomsday forecasts.

Alongside predictions that the number of extreme heatwaves would quadruple, property values would plunge by more than $600bn, 2.7 million days of work would be lost, coastal flooding would occur more than half the year, periods in drought would almost double and ecosystems would be lost, nothing quite resonated like an explosion in the number of deaths.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Picture: AAP

“Increases in extreme heat and heatwaves will increase health risks and heat-related mortality …” declared page iv of the overview.

The detail was on page 132 of the report itself. With warming of 3C, it said, “heat-related mortality rises relative to current – for example: 444 per cent in Sydney, 259 per cent in Melbourne, 335 per cent in Townsville, 312 per cent in Perth, 146 per cent in Launceston and 423 per cent in Darwin”.

The increases sounded shocking. But dig past the percentage figures the Australian Climate Service highlighted and look at the raw numbers. In a separate table in the 284-page document, it noted there were 1202 heatwave-related deaths from 1967 to 2022, at an average of 21.5 a year. By starting at 1990, thereby putting more emphasis on the run of hotter years since the start of the 21st century, there were 909 deaths, at an average of 27.5 a year.

Swimmers at Bondi Beach during a Sydney heatwave. Picture: Getty Images

The most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data on causes of deaths, released in May, revealed there were 20 deaths in 2023 due to exposure to excessive natural heat out of a total of 183,131, equivalent to about one in 9000.

Of the 1,667,924 Australians who died over the last 10 years of available ABS data, which included the Black Summer of 2019-20, there were 206 heat-related fatalities, equivalent to about one in 8000.

Sydney’s Rookwood Cemetery. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The Climate Risk Assessment Report did not quote a national figure for the rise in heat-related deaths. But even the more than fourfold increase predicted under the 3C warming scenario for Sydney extrapolated nationally – and factoring in increases in population and deaths and an ageing population – would only lift any of the above totals or long-term averages into the 100-plus zone.

The tally of 20 victims of heat-related death in 2023 was dwarfed by the 52,348 people who died from cancerous tumours, the 16,933 from ischaemic heart diseases, the 9213 from dementia, the 5942 with diabetes, the 5565 with Alzhemier’s, the 5000 who contracted Covid-19, the 3585 who had a stroke, the 3214 who committed suicide and the 2886 who succumbed to influenza or pneumonia.

Chronic kidney disease killed 1997 Australians in 2023, alcoholic liver disease claimed the lives of 1044, obesity was responsible for 453 deaths and hernias killed 330.

Foetus or newborn deaths also far exceeded heat-related deaths, with 251 dying from complications of pregnancy, labour and delivery or maternal factors.

Moving away from health problems, transport accidents killed 1437, accidental poisonings were responsible for 1197 deaths, 235 Australians were fatal assault victims, while 197 died choking on food or other objects.

Even falls on and from stairs or steps cost the lives of more Australians (99) than exposure to excessive heat, as did drownings in natural water (99) and in swimming pools (26), complications of medical and surgical care (74), and falls involving beds (88) and from ladders (41).