Budget 2024: Labor moves to accelerate decline in migrants

Labor is planning a steep slowdown in net immigration, but one cohort has been guaranteed very different reception.

Budget 2024 budget migration graphic

Labor is planning a much steeper slowdown in net immigration to reach its goal of 260,000 next ­financial year, as it clamps down on overseas students while encouraging young professional ­Indians to work in Australia.

The budget also reveals the government expects to spend nearly $300m more in 2024-25 on the management of unlawful non-citizens, amid pressure from the Coalition to remove immigration detainees stuck in the ­system and hardcore criminals who are part of the NZYQ cohort living in the community.

Last year’s budget forecast a $1.4bn bill to manage unlawful non-citizens next financial year but that figure has been revised up to $1.7bn, with the government urging the opposition to support deportation powers to force uncooperative immigration detainees to return home.

According to Jim Chalmers’s third budget, net immigration will be at 395,000 in 2023-24, up from 315,000 in last year’s budget.

But Labor still expects net ­immigration to be at 260,000 next financial year, meaning the government will have to achieve a faster decline.

The figures were revised after Education Minister Jason Clare revealed Labor would place “soft caps” on the number of international students able to enrol at each university or college in a bid to halve the net migration intake.

A small amount of $2.1m has been set aside over the forward estimates for the Department of Education to develop and implement regulation requiring universities to establish new supply of purpose-built accommodation for domestic and international students.

If universities want to enrol more international students than their cap, they’ll have to make commitments to deliver student accommodation.

The migration program will be set at 185,000 places in 2024-25, with 132,000 allocated to the skill stream to “address Australia’s long-term skill needs”.

“The government is reforming Australia’s migration system to drive greater economic prosperity and restore its integrity, implementing actions outlined in the migration strategy.

This budget supports skills in demand, with around 70 per cent of the permanent migration program allocated to skilled visa categories,” the budget papers state.

“The actions under way as part of the migration strategy are ­delivering a better managed ­migration system.

“Government actions are estimated to reduce net overseas migration by 110,000 people over the forward estimates from 1 July 2024. Net overseas migration is forecast to approximately halve from 528,000 in 2022–23 to 260,000 in 2024–25.”

Net overseas migration is forecast to be 255,000 in 2025-26 and 235,000 in 2026–27 and 2027–28.

The Albanese government has announced a new Mobility Arrangement for Talented Early-professionals Scheme program for Indians starting in November, designed as a pathway for graduates and early career professionals with “knowledge and skills in targeted fields”.

The Indian nationals, aged 18 to 30 years, will be encouraged to live and work in Australia for up to two years.

They will have to pay $25 to go into a pre-application ballot and another $365 if they get through to the full application process, boosting the government’s coffers by $364m over five years.

The government is injecting $1bn over five years to establish and support the new Administrative Review Tribunal, which will replace the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, with most of the funding to pay for a “flexible demand-driven funding model” that Labor says will allow it to finalise 100 per cent of case lodgements each year.