BOM forecast shows warm, dry conditions will continue in spring

One of the driest winters on record is set to stretch into spring, BOM forecaster says.

The next three months are unlikely to produce much rainfall.

Australia faces no easing of the severe drought covering much of the eastern states, with warmer and drier than average conditions forecast for this spring.

The Bureau of Meteorology says in its spring outlook that the next three months are “unlikely to deliver significant widespread rainfall.”

The poor outlook follows what the BOM describes as “one of the driest winters on record for large parts of the country”.

“Unfortunately, the outlook is not indicating an easing of conditions in drought areas,” the bureau’s head of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins said this morning.

Winter was wet in parts of southern Victoria and western Tasmania, as well as central Queensland, but for most areas experiencing long-term rainfall deficiencies there was little relief, the bureau said.

The outlook for temperature in the coming three months shows most of Australia is likely to see warmer days and nights, with only isolated parts of southern Australia and Tasmania likely to see cooler conditions.

Dr Watkins said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole was the main climate driver.

“A positive IOD means we have cooler than average waters between Australia and Indonesia,” Dr Watkins said.

“This generally means less cloud than normal forms to the northwest of Australia, resulting in less rainfall and higher than average temperatures over central and southeastern Australia during winter and spring.”

By contrast, the El Nino Southern Oscillation remains neutral, the BOM said, having little influence over Australia’s climate at present.

The 2019 Spring Outlook introduces a suite of new climate outlook products, the bureau said, including outlooks at weekly and fortnightly timescales.

“These new outlooks will begin where the seven-day forecast ends, giving an indication of likely temperature and rainfall in the coming weeks,” Dr Watkins said.

“This will essentially bridge the gap between our seven-day forecast and the existing monthly and seasonal climate outlooks.”

The outlooks will also be issued more frequently, to provide community and climate-sensitive industries with the most up to date information on likely rainfall and temperatures for the coming weeks and months, the BOM said.

“A drier than average outlook is not an outlook for no rain at all,” Dr Watkins said.

“Significant rainfall events are always possible, so it’s important to keep a close eye on the seven-day forecast.”