Australia-PNG defence pact faces potential Indonesia iceberg
Any agreement that helps Australia shore up its defences against the possibility that Beijing might one day seek to cut off Pacific sea lines and position missiles or forces within striking distance of Australia can only be a good thing.
But it is not without problems.
If the deal is, as PNG Defence Minister Billy Joseph described at the weekend, a “mutual defence treaty” that will see Australia and PNG work together to defend each other’s territories, that raises prickly questions for Canberra.
China may be Australia’s biggest security threat in the Pacific but for most PNG defence leaders and officials it is Indonesia.
“We’re not talking about interoperability, we’re talking about totally integrated forces,” Mr Joseph told the ABC in what – if true – will raise hackles in Jakarta.
“Australian Defence Force and PNG Defence Force (PNGDF) both working together closely, using the same equipment … fighting together, defending our sovereignties as an integrated force.”
Given Richard Marles’ reluctance to comment on those claims before the agreement is formally signed this week, it seems likely Joseph may have over-egged the degree of intended integration.
“But let’s say the treaty does provide for the two nations to come to each other’s aid in the event of a conflict or security crisis.
Will Australia be required to come to PNG’s aid if it faces sovereignty issues with Indonesia, its closest neighbour and a nation with which it shares New Guinea island?
Such a scenario would surely be Australia’s nightmare, particularly under President Prabowo Subianto, a former military commander who has made very clear in the past his concerns over Canberra’s involvement in East Timorese independence.
Such potential landmines in this treaty have barely rated a mention.
Rest assured, they will be viewed as anything but trivial in Jakarta, which will be looking for rock-solid assurances from Australia and PNG, notwithstanding the robust health of its relationship with Canberra and improving ties with Port Moresby.
Pacific defence expert Anna Powles says the “treaty does raises a number of questions and concerns. It is unclear how it will be viewed by Indonesia and, of course, Australia will not want to be drawn into any cross-border issues between PNG and Indonesia”. If that wasn’t enough to keep Australian diplomats up at night, there are the potential risks for any Australian soldiers embedded in the PNG defence force, if the cross-military recruitment options are to go both ways.
How will it work if embedded ADF soldiers are deployed to quell violent unrest in the Highlands, as the PNG military is often called upon to do?
It has already been made clear there will be no legal impunity under the treaty for Australians who violate PNG laws, or for Papua New Guineans who breach Australian law.
While close military integration has potentially big implications for other important Australian bilateral relationships, the same is also true for Port Moresby given the treaty’s potential impact on PNG’s other security partners, including close allies and partners of Australia.
As Powles points out, a New Zealand defence force officer has traditionally held the post of chief of staff within the PNGDF. Will that continue or will an Australian officer take the job? How Papua New Guineans will ultimately view this treaty is still to be tested.
Ferocious university campus protests in 2023 over the country’s defence co-operation agreement with the United States forced Prime Minister James Marape to assure the public the pact would not undermine the country’s sovereignty or security.
There are plenty of sweeteners in this treaty, including billions of Australian dollars for new weapons for the PNG military and potentially also jobs for young Papua New Guineans in the ADF – even if that process will require guard rails to prevent brain drain and the hollowing out of PNG’s own military force.
But there is no getting away from the fact that the defence agreement will “shift PNG’s foreign policy position away from its traditional stance of ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ to one of direct security alignment with Australia”, says Powles.
“PNG will need to be very clear what the implications of this treaty are for its sovereignty and national interest.”
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There is much to celebrate in Australia’s new defence treaty with Papua New Guinea that locks in a formal security partnership with our closest neighbour at a time of heightened concern over China’s push for a permanent presence in the Pacific.