AUKUS back on track as US congress set to double purchases of Virginia-class submarines

The House Armed Services Committee has doubled planned purchases of Virginia-class subs, overruling Joe Biden’s plan which had raised fears the US Navy wouldn’t be able to supply Australia with promised nuclear-powered submarines.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Richard Marles, with his AUKUS counterparts, US Secretary of Defence, Lloyd AustinI, and UK Secretary of State for Defence, Grant Shapps, at the Defense Innovation Unit near San Francisco.

The US House of Representatives is on track to overturn the Biden administration’s surprise request to buy only one Virginia-class submarine in 2025, which had raised fears the US Navy wouldn’t be able to supply Australia with promised nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS security pact.

The powerful House Armed Services Committee on Monday (Tuesday AEST) has doubled to two the number of Virginia-class submarines the US government will buy in 2025, putting congress on track to increase production of the critical vessels which Australia is meant to start purchasing in the early 2030s.

The Biden administration in its March 2025 budget proposal had indicated it would purchase only one of the submarines in 2025, far below the annual number required (around three per year on average) to satisfy both the US and Australian navies’ future needs.

“Authorising the second boat through incremental funding authority, which restores the two-per-year procurement rate and allows the Navy to contract for two submarines in FY25, will provide additional resources to ensure all suppliers are covered and increase the inventory of attack submarines for the Navy,” said Democratic Party congressman Joe Courtney.

Mr Courtney had slammed the Navy’s original request as creating instability in US submarine production schedules and raising questions about whether the Navy would be able to sell a planned three Virginia-class submarines to Australia.

“Given the critical need for attack submarines across the globe and the impending decision to certify the sale of three submarines to Australia starting in 2032, the subcommittee mark takes decisive action – as required in Article One of the US Constitution – to add back the second submarine,” Mr Courtney added in a statement.

Analysis of the House committee’s proposal for the 2025 National Defence Authorisation Act reveals an extra $US1 billion to purchase a second submarine and a reduce spending on the navy’s delayed Constellation-class frigate. The plan maintains the overall cap on defence spending at $US895 billion for 2025.

“This effort demonstrates congress’s iron-clad commitment to fulfilling the AUKUS security partnership and will make it easier for the future president to certify the sale of three Virginia-class submarines beginning in 2032,” Mr Courtney said.

The House is yet to pass the legislation, but 132 of its members have publicly endorsed the Committee’s proposal, suggesting it will find safe passage. The Senate will have to agree before the purchases becomes law.

In March 2023 President Joe Biden and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak announced in San Diego a plan for Australia to buy three nuclear-powered submarines to replace the ageing Collins-class fleet, with the first sale scheduled for 2032.

The proposal should calm nerves in Canberra after the President’s 2025 budget, which was released in March, had fuelled concern that bottlenecks in US submarine construction, which have fallen below targets for years, could delay the US government’s undertaking to Australia.

In March, Undersecretary of the Navy Erik Raven denied the unexpected production cut imperilled US promises to Australia under AUKUS, arguing additional investment in the US submarine production base including by Australia would facilitate increased production in “the out years” beyond 2029.

“Thanks to the Australians and the support of congress, there are additional investments that we expect to bring us up above that 2.0 delivery cadence to that 2.33 that we would need to produce the submarines to fulfil our AUKUS commitments,” Mr Raven then said.

The government has promised to pay $US3bn to the US to help it bolster its submarine production capacity, as part of the estimated $368bn cost of the total program, as part of the AUKUS plan laid out in San Diego that foreshadowed an Australian fleet of at least eight Virginia-class submarines by the late 2040s.