ASIO reduces Australia’s terrorism risk despite ‘enduring threat’
The organisation warns the threat of a deadly attack in the next year is far from over but is considered less likely with fewer Islamist extremists in the community.
ASIO has eased Australia’s terrorism threat level from “probable” to “possible”, warning a deadly attack could still come within the next 12 months but is now considered less likely.
The change follows a months-long analysis revealing there are now fewer Islamist extremists in the community who are likely to conduct violent attacks.
ASIO director-general Mike Burgess said the lowering of the heightened threat level imposed in 2014 reflected the degradation in the capabilities and allure of groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda.
But he said terrorism remained an “enduring threat”, and ASIO would maintain its vigilance and high operational tempo to guard against potential attacks.
“This does not mean the threat is extinguished. Far from it. ‘Possible’ does not mean ‘negligible’,” he said.
“It remains plausible that someone will die at the hands of a terrorist in Australia within the next 12 months – although, of course, my organisation will literally work around the clock to prevent that from happening.”
Mr Burgess said ASIO continued to track Australians who embraced violent extremist beliefs, but there were fewer of them than previously, and fewer were deemed likely to conduct violent attacks.
While there had been a rise in the number of ideologically motivated extremists during the pandemic who used violent rhetoric, they were yet to engage in terrorist acts in Australia.
“While we remain concerned about these groups, we must distinguish between ugly actions, big talk and actual terrorism,” Mr Burgess said.
“ASIO assesses the vast majority of these extremists are more likely to focus on recruitment and radicalisation than attack planning in the foreseeable future.”
The lowering of the threat level comes despite the repatriation by the Albanese government of Australia’s so-called “ISIS brides” from camps in Syria, which Mr Burgess said was taken into account when the decision was made.
Since 2014, when the threat level was raised to “probable” amid the rise of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, there have been 11 terrorist attacks on Australian soil, and 21 significant plots disrupted.
There have been no major attacks or plot disruptions this year, and intelligence sources said it would likely take more than a single attack for the threat level to be raised again.
Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said the government welcomed ASIO’s decision, but reiterated: “The lowering of the threat level does not mean the threat from terrorism is extinguished.”
She said the reduction in the terrorism threat level reflected the maturity of the nation’s counter-terrorism frameworks, laws and resourcing.
“Threats will continue to evolve and we expect to see changes in the security environment over time,” Ms O’Neil said.
Mr Burgess said espionage and foreign interference had supplanted terrorism as the nation’s top security concern, but terrorism would continue to get ASIO’s “full attention”.
He said the most likely terrorist attack in Australia remained a “lone wolf” event by a person using an easily-available weapon such as a knife or vehicle.
Mr Burgess warned the proliferation of online extremist content meant individuals could be radicalised within weeks or days, “so the time between flash to bang is shorter than ever”.
More than 50 convicted terrorists are due to be released from Australian jails in coming decades, while Australian foreign fighters could return from Syria and Iraq bringing dangerous ideologies with them, he said.
ASIO is also concerned at the rise in the number of minors being radicalised, with about half of the agency’s terrorist caseload aged under 18.
Mr Burgess said the terrorism threat level was not a “set and forget” indicator, and was kept under constant review.
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